Malaysia: Predictions about the coming state elections
With the state election date likely to be set for August 2023, here is a compilation of my predictions for each state.
Perikatan Nasional (PN) will contest all 235 seats in the 6 states. PAS is allocated more than half the seat allocation with 126 seats, Bersatu 83 seats, and Gerakan with 36 seats. PN will use the PAS logo during the campaign for Terengganu and Kelantan.
The unity government still has to finalise the seat allocations.
Voter turnout in the state elections is expected to be lower than for GE15. Around 60% to 70% are expected to turn out, which could possibly favour PN.
Barbarians at the gates
The state of Selangor is the jewel of the peninsula’s crown. Selangor consists of four major cities Shah Alam, Klang, kajang, and Petaling Jaya. Selangor also has a number of rural and coastal areas that gives the state some semblance of rural Malaysia. Selangor has both industry and agriculture, and the state’s population has crept just above 7 million people.
When the then Pakatan Rakyat seized the state during the 2008 electoral Tsunami, it sent shockwaves through the then Barisan Nasional federal government, partly leading to the demise of then prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
Fast forward to 2023, Pakatan Harapan is now sharing a federal government with the Barisan Nasional and GPS from Sarawak, and in Selangor has 49 out of the 56 seats in the state assembly.
The state parliamentary term ends on 26th June, where there must be an election before 25th August 2023. Many believe this election may occur, as early as May.
The mood on the Pakatan side is varied, ranging from high confidence to deep concern for the coming election. However, based upon federal voting patterns, dubbed the ‘green wave’ during the last general election, Selangor is due to be hit hard.
The big question is to what degree?
There are a number of new factors that may have influence of the result of the coming state election that didn’t exist during GE15.