Why the need for Umno to have a snap GE15?
To justify dissolving parliament early to hold a snap GE15, Umno will need to win at least a simple majority (112 seats and above). If Umno-Barisan Nasional wins less than 100 seats, say just 80 seats or thereabouts, then the whole purpose of a snap GE15 would be defeated.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
What I am about to say is not my own opinion. It is what the Umno people are saying as to why parliament needs to be dissolved to make way for a snap GE15.
Umno considers the current government (or recently dissolved government) as not an Umno-Barisan Nasional government — even if the Prime Minister is from Umno — but a mixed government or unity government (kerajaan campuran, say the Umno people).
So they want this (current or recently dissolved) government replaced with a thoroughbred Umno-Barisan Nasional government — meaning not a government in cooperation with non-Barisan Nasional parties (such as PAS, Bersatu, PKR, DAP, Amanah, Muda, Pejuang, Putra, and so on).
Umno feels it is currently at the peak of its strength and popularity, while the non-Barisan Nasional parties are divided, at odds with one another, and at their weakest since 2018. Hence, now is the perfect time to hold a general election in the spirit of strike while the iron is hot, or attack while your enemies are at their weakest, as Sun Tzu would say.
Umno, or some in Umno, do not want Ismail Sabri Yaakob as their Prime Minister because he did not help Najib Tun Razak, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Rosmah Mansor, and a number of other leaders get their criminal cases withdrawn or the charges dropped (like how Pakatan Harapan did when they came to power in May 2018).
Ismail Sabri also did not replace the Chief Justice, Attorney-General, IGP, MACC Commissioner, Bank Negara Governor, Finance Minister, Home Affairs Minister, and many more, with Umno-friendly people — like how Pakatan Harapan did when they came to power (with people such as Tommy Thomas, Tengku Maimun Tuan Mat, Hamid Bador, Latheefa Koya, etc.).
Umno feels it needs total and absolute control, not only of Parliament (where it is currently in the minority with only about 25% of the seats), but also of the Cabinet and of all agencies of the government — such as the judiciary, police, Anti-Corruption Commission, and more (like how things were in the good old days when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was Prime Minister).
To control two-thirds of Parliament, Umno-Barisan Nasional will need to win at least 149 parliament seats in the coming general election. To win a simple (but dangerously razor-thin) majority, they would need to win 112 parliament seats. Ideally, in the absence of a two-thirds majority, Umno-Barisan Nasional will need to win at least 130-135 seats to ensure a strong and stable government (but with no two-thirds majority).
If Umno-Barisan Nasional wins just 111 parliament seats (meaning a hung parliament), or just 110 seats or less, then Umno-Barisan Nasional will need to form a government in cooperation (or a unity government) with other parties, like now (or like the recently dissolved government).
To justify dissolving parliament early to hold a snap GE15, Umno will need to win at least a simple majority (112 seats and above). If Umno-Barisan Nasional wins less than 100 seats, say just 80 seats or thereabouts, then the whole purpose of a snap GE15 would be defeated.
