THE AGONG, ANWAR, REOPENING PARLIAMENT AND NUMBERS DEMYSTIFIED
So many of my PH friends are beyond excited with the Agong’s statement that Parliament should be reconvened as soon as possible. You can hear the cheers from Bangsar to Cheras and echoing through to Damansara!
But why so excited? What are you expecting to happen when Parliament reconvenes? Are you expecting Anwar to announce that he finally has the numbers to form a Government and bring PH back into power? Are you expecting Anwar to call for a vote of no confidence against Muhyiddin and then become Prime Minister?
Let’s all calm down and take a step back and look at the numbers lah. Numbers don’t lie.
Dewan Rakyat has 222 seats. Two seats are vacant, which means that there are 220 MPs in Malaysia. Currently PN has 116 MPs. Which leaves the Opposition with 104 MPs. Or thereabouts. More or less. Give or take lah.
Here’s the thing. For Anwar to defeat Muhyiddin and form a Government, he needs 112 or more MPs, which means all of PH (PKR, DAP and Amanah), Tun M and gang (Pejuang, Muda, Warisan) and all of UMNO.
Now, how realistic is this grand scenario? Let’s live in the real world and let’s look at real world facts:
1. Tun M will NEVER support Anwar as PM. Never. Never. Never. So we can rule Tun and his gang of Pejuang (4 MPs), MUDA (1 MP), Warisan (8 MPs) and 1 independent (Mazslee) out. That’s 14 MPs not supporting Anwar.
2. When we talk about UMNO, we really are not talking about one united and solid bloc of 38 MPs. UMNO is riddled with factions and generally speaking, you have the faction supporting Hishammuddin Hussein and the faction with Jibby and Zahid (read: Court Cluster).
So when Anwar says he has UMNO with him, he’s lying through his teeth to you because what he really means but isn’t telling you is that he only has about 6 MPs from UMNO – the Court Cluster. HH and team simply aren’t interested to rock the boat. So 32 UMNO MPs are not signing up with Anwar.
Then again, politics is the art of the impossible and perhaps Jibby can entice 3 or 4 UMNO MPs to join him – let’s be generous and give Jibby a total of 10 UMNO MPs. Still, is that enough for Anwar to cross the magic number of 112?
3. Which brings us to DAP. Do you seriously think DAP will sleep in the same bed with Jibby & Co and jeopardise its future with its hardcore grassroots? DAP will never, I repeat, NE-VER, work with these kleptos which it has demonised and vilified since forever. Even if some DAP leaders may flirt with the idea of a working relationship or a Confidence Supply Agreement with Jibby & Co, the vast majority of DAP MPs and their constituents and grassroots draw the red line in the sand here. There would be a serious backlash and rebellion from the DAP grassroots if its leaders were to sign up with Jibby & Co.
So DAP embracing Jibby & Co is a NO GO all things considered. What about UMNO embracing DAP, you may ask? One word: GILA. If UMNO leaders actually work with DAP, that would be the catastrophic end of UMNO. If there is one party in Malaysia that will bend over backwards to pander to and assuage its grassroots, it is UMNO. And as far as UMNO grassroot members are concerned, DAP is THE enemy. UMNO has bled enough members; it will not jeopardise what’s left. So the UMNO-DAP marriage is just a blissful dream/nightmare that will never see the light of day, as sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.
4. Which leaves Anwar with the 42 PKR MPs, 11 Amanah MPs and 6 MPs from UMNO (or 10 on a very good day). That’s a grand total of 66 MPs at most. This number wouldn’t even get him pass the Palace gates, let alone an audience with DYMM SPBYD Agong.
5. Finally, let’s look at who won’t back Anwar for one reason or another. DAP (42 MPs) won’t back Anwar if Jibby & Co come in; Tun (14 MPs) over his dead body; GPS, PAS and the BN component parties (about 27 MPs) have two red lines they will never cross – Anwar and DAP. So that’s a massive chunk of about 83 MPs not backing Anwar. Pray tell, where is Anwar going to find the remaining numbers to cross the 112 line?
Back to Jibby & Co – do you think they will leave PN and forfeit their privileges if they know Anwar simply hasn’t got enough numbers to even crawl pass the Palace gates? These are kleptos, remember. They aren’t interested in principles or ideology. They just have one agenda – survival.
So I’m telling my PH friends, and you, to not hold your breath. Nothing is going to happen when Parliament reopens. Enjoy your coffee.
Coffee connoisseur, retired loyar burok and unaccredited political analyst