Tanjung Piai by-election – a loss for Pakatan?

It’s the type of constituency whose racial composition was favoured/loved by Mahathir in his earlier reign (1981 to 2003), where if Malay voters split their support between PAS and UMNO, Mahathir would frighten the sh*t out of the ‘unwitting kingmaker’ Chinese into voting for his previous far more racist (than PAS) party, UMNO.

Ktemoc Konsiders

Al Fatihah Allahyarham Md Farid Md Rafik.

Also, deepest condolences to his family.

His sudden demise has brought about a by-election for the Tanjung Piai federal constituency in Johor. The late Md Farid won the Tanjung Piai seat at the last general election (05 May 2018), defeating Wee Jeck Seng of MCA with just a majority of 524 votes in a 53,528 strong electorate.
Party Candidate Votes % ∆%
PH Md Farid Md Rafik 21,255 47.29 + 47.29
BN Wee Jeck Seng 20,731 46.12 – 10.00
PAS Nordin Othman 2,962 6.59 + 6.59
Total valid votes 44,948 100.00
Total rejected ballots 841
Unreturned ballots 69
Turnout 45,858 85.67
Registered electors 53,528
Majority 524 1.17

But if we consider the combined votes for BN and PAS against Pakatan, PH would have lost to BN-PAS by a majority of 2438. T’was the wrong strategy by BN and PAS to split their votes in GE14.

Indeed, if we examined the election prior to 2018, namely, 2013 (see following table), we’d see BN had then won with a majority of 5457. In 2013 GE MCA’s Wee Jeck Seng secured 56.12% of the ‘turnout’ votes or 25038 votes to win.
Party Candidate Votes % ∆%
BN Wee Jeck Seng 25,038 56.12 – 11.95
DAP Mahdzir Ibrahim 19,581 43.88 + 11.95
Total valid votes 44,619 100.00
Total rejected ballots 918
Unreturned ballots 85
Turnout 45,622 87.95
Registered electors 51,875
Majority 5,457 12.24
Traditionally, prior to 2018, the federal seat was seen a combat arena between MCA and DAP, with MCA winning in the 11th, 12th and 13th GE’s.

However, in the 14th GE in 2018, the DAP gave way in Tanjung Piai to Mahathir’s Parti Pribumi. The late Md Farid surprisingly won, though by then the overall political tide had already changed in Pakatan’s favour.

With the plummeting popularity of PH since its rule for more than a year, will PH be able to win Tanjung Piai again, more so when PAS and UMNO have recently vowed to haap-chiok (cooperate)?

Read more here