Gazing into the crystal ball for 2018

Philip Golingai, The Star

HERE are my political predictions for 2018.

GE14 will be on next year. Ha ha …. that’s a given. The Barisan Nasional Government’s five-year term ends on June 24 and the 14th General Election must be called within 60 days following the dissolution of Parliament.

When will it be held?

If you are a zombie, you’ll believe the viral WhatsApp message that mentioned Jan 11 as the date for the dissolution of Parliament, March 11 as the date for nominations and March 25 as polling day.

The dates mentioned in the viral message, according to Election Commission chairman Tan Sri Mohd Hashim Abdullah, did not make sense at all.

“The period exceeds the 60 days as stated under Article 55(4) of the Federal Constitution within which time a general election must be held,” Mohd Hashim said.

When people ask me about the viral WhatsApp message, my standard answer is: “Even Najib (Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak) hasn’t decided.”

If they ask me when I think GE14 is, my standard reply is: “Either around March or if not, then around May.”

GE14 will be the dirtiest election in Malaysian history. It will be do-or-die for certain parties and politicians. It will be the mother of all Malaysian elections.

Actually, not. “The dirtiest polls”, “do-or-die” and “mother of all polls” are just cliché propaganda that politicians like to use to “scare” voters.

Take “do-or-die”: I have covered Malaysian elections as a journalist since 1994 and the media (or is it politicians?) is fond of using the idiom. But, to rephrase part of General Douglas MacArthur’s farewell address, “Old politicians never die, they just fade away.”

The most exciting states to watch in GE14, for me, are Sabah, Selangor, Terengganu and Kelantan.

Sabah is the most politically volatile state in Malaysia. At this moment, about half of the 25 MP seats in my home state of Sabah will be fiercely contested.

It is hard to predict Sabah as there are too many Opposition parties. On paper, it looks like it will be Barisan Nasional vs Pakatan Harapan vs United Sabah Alliance vs Parti Warisan Sabah vs mosquito parties vs independents. On nomination day, the messy Sabah politics will be clearer as by then the voters will know which parties and politicians are contesting.

However, Barisan has the advantage in Sabah because the Opposition parties themselves are their own worst enemies. For example, I hear Warisan, a state Opposition party, complain more about DAP than Barisan parties.

Selangor is confusing. With PAS out of Pakatan Harapan, and a three-way fight between Barisan and Pakatan Harapan and PAS, it is anyone’s guess who will win the state. My adopted state, Selangor, might or might not have a new government.

Terengganu will also be hotly contested. There it is a duopoly – Umno vs PAS. Based on the GE13 results, the east coast state is split into half.

Barisan Nasional garnered 265,195 votes and Pakatan Rakyat got 264,465 votes. The difference was 730 or 0.1% of the total votes cast. Out of the 32 state seats, Umno won 17 seats, PAS 14 and PKR 1. Umno and PAS each hold half of the eight MP seats.

With the razor thin margin between Umno and PAS, the state government could go either way.

There’s a possibility that the PAS-led Kelantan government will fall. But, there’s a “but” in my prediction.

If Kelantan politics is seen as a car, Umno is driving it with the handbrake pulled up – meaning the car is not going as fast as it could. If Umno released the handbrake, it would be on 4th gear and cruising to be the state government.

In my political tourism travel this year, I have been hearing that the choice of candidate is important. Gone are the days when you fielded a buffalo with a popular party symbol, and the buffalo would win.

Yes, the party symbol is important. There are voters who are loyal to Barisan’s dacing (scales) or DAP’s rocket symbols. But the choice of candidate can make a difference in marginal seats.

For example, I was in the interior of Sabah this week. I’ve been hearing complaints about an MP who held the seat for three terms. The voters are fed up with his non-performance in terms of bringing basic infrastructure into his constituency.

In GE13, some voters purposely voted for other parties to show their unhappiness with him. This time, there will be more protest votes.

One way to continue winning the seat is to put up a “fresh face” candidate who is not bogged down by unfulfilled campaign promises.

My final political prediction is that GE14 will be the mother of all fake news.

Among the blatant and outlandish lies spread by the cybertroopers during the last general election, according to Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, was that about the “import” of 40,000 Bangladesh nationals on 100 Boeing 747 aircraft to vote.

This time I wonder what can top that fake news. But for sure, zombies will eat the fake news as if it were fresh brains.