Who would win in three-cornered fights?
(Malaysian Chinese News) – PAS has failed to assess its own strength. It is still deep in its Utopian dream and one finds it difficult to track its mindset. Three-cornered fights would be suicidal for the party.
PAS is prepared for three-cornered fights in the coming election. DAP, Pribumi Bersatu and Parti Amanah have all geared up for the tough fights while only PKR seems to be still harboring some lingering hope.
The Pakatan Harapan supreme council has recently resolved and signed an agreement to terminate relations with PAS. However, the pro-PAS faction in PKR is still unwilling to follow but continues to deal with PAS, with the support of Anwar. If that is the case, is the agreement signed by Wan Azizah still valid? Does it mean that Wan Azizah is incapable of making decisions, Azmin is weak and Anwar is blur?
This article is focus on the assessment of the politics in Selangor.
Will the PKR-led Selangor state government change hands because of three-cornered fights? Azmin does not have the full confidence. PKR Women chief Zuraida shows pessimism but Rafizi, the promoter of INVOKE opinion polls, has no fear of three-cornered fights. The two factions have opposing views.
Pakatan partner DAP will contest in Chinese-dominated constituencies. PAS said it would contest in 42 seats constituencies, of which only one will encroach into DAP domain. DAP has 15 seats which it won with high majority votes (even the lowest majority reached 1,702 votes). As such, the cutting of ties between Pakatan Harapan and PAS will not have much effect on DAP’s election results.
Pribumi Bersatu which is starting with zero seat would of course like to see the departure of PAS so that it could share with Parti Amanah the 20 constituencies contested by PAS in the last election (PKR fought in one of them). However, PKR Selangor doesn’t seem bold enough to charge ahead. It is looking back at PAS while trying to sort out the distribution of the 20 constituencies.
Based on the results of the last election, Barisan’s strength is in the north. Except for the Chinese-dominated Sekinchan and Kuala Kubu Baru which were won by DAP, it was blue all the way to the north. PKR made some gains in and around Kuala Lumpur while PAS won in some suburban areas. DAP swept all the urban and suburban seats in Chinese-dominated areas. Chinese support of DAP was at its highest.
Without the Chinese votes and the support of PKR, PAS is likely to retreat to its original spot. In 2004, it was swept aside by the popularity of the new Prime Minister Abdullah and did not win anything.
PAS has failed to assess its own strength. It is still deep in its Utopian dream and one finds it difficult to track its mindset. Three-cornered fights would be suicidal for the party.
In reality, the Selangor state government depends on how much Malay votes the PKR, Pribumi Bersatu and Parti Amanah partnership can win. There is high possibility that PKR can retain the 14 urban and suburban seats, including the seat held by Khalid who has left the party. The fight will be intense for the 13 rural seats held by PAS and similarly for the 12 UMNO seats. With all the trouble created by PAS, it would be difficult for Pakatan Harapan to take any of the 12 UMNO seats.
PAS political base in Selangor is not very strong. Nevertheless, its defeated candidates in all the past elections were able to keep their deposits. It means they still enjoy certain support, about 20 to 30 percent, of the Malay votes in rural areas while the same goes for PKR in rural areas. UMNO can win 35 to 60 percent rural Malay votes but it must be able to garner over 55 percent Malay votes to win the state constituencies as 70 to 80 percent Chinese votes would go to Pakatan.
In a three-cornered fight, PAS supporters will vote for PAS while Pakatan Harapan has to depend on votes won by Pribumi Bersatu and Parti Amanah. Based on Pakatan Harapan’s leadership structure, only two Pribumi Bersatu leaders were included in the lineup, one less than DAP and Parti Amanah. Azmi seems to look up to Parti Amanah but still has doubts on Pribumi Bersatu headed by Mahathir.
My personal assessment is that Parti Amanah can take away 20 percent of PAS votes and Pribumi Bersatu can take away 10 to 15 percent UMNO votes. After all the calculations, three-cornered fights will benefit neither Pakatan Harapan nor Barisan Nasional and a bitter fight will be unavoidable. PAS is bound to suffer massive defeats unless it has some hidden dealings with Barisan.
