At what cost high-speed rail
Based on 2010 data, the Kristom study says infrastructure maintenance costs in Europe are around €100,000 per km. For the 350km KL-Singapore route and based on an exchange rate of RM4 to one euro, maintenance could total a hefty RM140 million a year.
Second, will the Malaysia-Singapore HSR have sufficient passengers to make it commercially viable?
Tan Siok Choo, The Sun Daily
MAGNETIC levitation (maglev for short) trains are to railways what Lamborghinis are to cars. Like Lamborghinis, maglev trains are super speedy, ultra-pricey and transportation’s status symbols.
Currently, there are only two commercial maglev trains globally – the 30km Pudong-Shanghai maglev and the 8.9km Aichi maglev, near Nagoya in Japan, built in 2005 at a cost of over US$100 million per km.
Given the exorbitant costs involved, Malaysia’s decision to rule out buying maglev trains is a relief.
Whether building a high-speed rail (HSR) to connect Kuala Lumpur with Singapore is economically justifiable is debatable. HSRs are the equivalent of Bentleys – cheaper than Lamborghinis but out of reach for 95% of car owners.
Commonly defined as trains that travel on specially-built lines at speeds of 200kph, HSRs have been installed in several countries, mainly in Europe, China and Japan.
If asked, frequent travellers to Singapore – whether Malaysians or foreigners – are likely to vote overwhelmingly in favour of replacing sluggish Keretapi Tanah Melayu (KTM) trains with HSRs. Some economists and Malaysian taxpayers, however, may be more cautious for several reasons.
First, will the costs for construction and maintenance be affordable? Research reports published in Malaysian newspapers suggest the tab for the proposed KL-Singapore HSR could be around RM40 billion comprising RM30 billion in construction cost plus RM10 billion for rolling stock or trains.
This figure appears to be a massive understatement.
A study titled “Economic evaluation of the High Speed Rail” by Bengt Kristrom, Mikael Asell and Agnus Allgulin in December 2011 says the construction cost per km of HS2 in UK is estimated at €70 million (RM280 million).
This suggests the 350km KL-Singapore HSR could cost RM98 billion.
Admittedly, HS2’s costs are due to high land values and the need to build tunnels. HS2 is the planned second high-speed rail link from London to Manchester and Leeds via Birmingham.
Equally important – and often overlooked in Malaysia – is the need for an adequate budget for maintenance costs.
Based on 2010 data, the Kristom study says infrastructure maintenance costs in Europe are around €100,000 per km. For the 350km KL-Singapore route and based on an exchange rate of RM4 to one euro, maintenance could total a hefty RM140 million a year.
Second, will the Malaysia-Singapore HSR have sufficient passengers to make it commercially viable?
In 2010, Australia’s Transport Ministry said it rejected the proposed HSR linking Sydney and Melbourne because it was too costly and wouldn’t attract enough passengers. According to the ministry, an HSR needs about six million passengers a year to be viable.
Third, will the HSR benefit Malaysian taxpayers? One benefit of HSR often cited is its speed. However, it is misleading to talk of maximum speed, what matters is operational speed. Because the HSR will have to slow down considerably before and after a station, opting for more stations will reduce the operational speed.
Because of its speed, proponents also claim HSRs offer considerable savings in time. One figure often glossed over is door-to-door time. This comprises four segments – time from home to airport or railway station, waiting time, actual travel time, and from railway station or airport to destination.
While cities often build dedicated highways to airports, the same cannot be said for high-speed railway stations.
One example is the HSR from Beijing to Jinan in Shandong province.
In November 2011, my husband and I took this HSR. Door-to-door time was about four hours 15 minutes. Actual travel time was three hours, the Jinan station was just 10 minutes from the hotel in Jinan. But the savings in time were negated by the 90 minutes it took to reach Beijing South railway station from our hotel in Beijing.
Flying from Beijing to Jinan, the door-to-door time would have been three hours 45 minutes – one hour from hotel to Beijing airport, one hour waiting time, one hour flying time and about 45 minutes from Jinan airport to hotel.
Moreover, the lack of escalators in Jinan railway station meant we had to carry our suitcases up and down two flights of stairs.
Forecasts for future passenger travel by HSR often overlook a growing corporate trend – the rising popularity of video-conferencing, enabling top executives to minimise physical travel and maximise their time more effectively.
A non-quantifiable benefit of the KL-Singapore HSR is that it reflects the improved relationship between the two countries. What is notable is this HSR proposal was possible only because the prime ministers of both countries were unencumbered by the fallout from Singapore’s separation from Malaysia.
Going forward, implementing this project will ensure Malaysia and Singapore will be inextricably linked by fast-track rail – a physical bond that cannot be severed unilaterally – and fortified by this tangible acknowledgement of their shared economic interests.
