Whither SAPP on the political chessboard?

If it insists on taking this lion’s share of seats with both PR and UBA, it might as well forget about dealing with any party, local or national, and go on to contest the election on its own. But then it will have to wonder how much of the 40 seats it will be able to win, and will it be willing to be the election spoiler, breaking the opposition’s votes and give victory to BN? 

By Raymond Tombung

The latest political development indicates that on the opposition side of the fence, the Pakatan Rakyat, more or less, is agreeable to focussing more on parliamentary seats in the state for the next general election and less on state assembly seats. Because the new idea that local parties should be given the priority to take care of the 60 assembly seats have now gained more acceptance, the Peninsular parties such as PKR and PAS appear to appreciate the logic of local Sabah parties taking on the BN. Only DAP is still having the enthusiasm of wanting to contest in as many seats as possible, even in KDM majority areas.

The United Borneo Alliance (UBA) led by Datuk Dr. Jeffrey Kitingan, meanwhile, has gained significant ground by sealing, in Semporna last week, a far-reaching pact with USNO to push for the Borneo Agenda as a team. The surprising speed at which STAR gained momentum and the how the unregistered USNO is rousing support among the Muslim Bumiputera had raised new confidence for the UBA to forge forward, even without anymore infusion of new parties into UBA.

Now there are two important grouping in Sabah opposition politics – the Pakatan Rakyat and the UBA, with the former more for parliamentary seats and the latter more for state seats. This, interestingly enough, has left one party in a dilemma of sort – SAPP! There is a very big question of where it fits in the current interplay of political maneuvers because of at least three reasons: 1. It is a Chinese-based party with doubtful Chinese support and no distinct Bumiputera support; 2. It doesn’t know where it is going – to PR or to UBA or to be on its own, and 3. It, illogically, wants the lion’s share in the state seats.

The fact that SAPP is seen as a Chinese party (no matter what long rants it makes on being multiracial or non-race) puts it in its biggest dilemma. Despite the presence of Datuk Eric Mojimbun, Amde Sidek, Peter Marajin and Dullie Marie in the party’s top lineup, somehow Datuk Yong Teck Lee has failed to prop up SAPP’s multiracial image. What he should have done after leaving the BN in 2008 was to give Mojimbun greater prominence as the party’s propaganda loudspeaker. Only now Amde, my good writer and speaker pal, and Marajin, are given some leeway as the party’s spokesmen, but they might be a bit late in the day, and perhaps a tad insufficient, for SAPP’s rebranding knowing their short political experience and exposure.

Dullie, another friend of mine who is naturally quiet, had not been adequately utilised. While it is expected that the party chief should be making most of the party’s statements, somehow, in the case of SAPP, this has been counter-productive as far as making SAPP a multiracial party is concerned. If only Mojimbun had been allowed to lead the party and to activate support from KDM areas during the last three years, SAPP would now be wearing an 80 percent Bumiputera image with support encompassing the KDMs, the Chinese, and some Muslim Bumiputeras.

But this “if only” scenario could never have happened knowing Yong’s need to keep a grip on the party reins and to maintain the Chinese dominance in the party. It is a case of wanting a new image but unwilling to change fashion. SAPP is perhaps making maximum audiovisual impacts (relentless statements, and flag and banner displays) as a means to diminish this dilemma and uncertainty of its definition and positioning.

Prior to the launch of STAR, when Yong was in a series of intimate discussions with Jeffrey about an alliance, there was a strong potential for SAPP to establish a much stronger foothold. But after Jeffrey launched STAR with surprising response from the people, SAPP got the jitters about joining UBF or UBA. It went even as far as denying any political arrangement with Jeffrey or any connection to the Borneo Alliance, with Amde saying his attendance at the launching was just “a personal support for Jeffrey” – a nice method of political evasiveness, to say the least.

But why is a strong STAR suddenly scaring SAPP off? When SAPP attended the inaugural UBA meeting under the chairmanship of neutral Datuk Ismail Gimbad on January 31, 2012, STAR and USNO agreed to an alliance while SAPP agreed “in principle, subject to consultation with SAPP’s President and Supreme Council,” in other words “we are not ready to commit.” And to ask the obvious, why is it always the Muslim Deputy President being sent to deal officially with UBA? Why not the KDM Deputy? Is SAPP being cautious about compromising its standing by dealing with UBA on equal footing? 

SAPP has also been trying to deal with PR’s PKR, DAP and PAS but still didn’t manage to reach any sort of consensus because of its stance for wanting to stand in 40 state seats and five parliamentary seats. In one discussion with PR, SAPP was reportedly told it could be given at the most three state seats, and if it wanted to take on 40 seats, it should forget about taking any parliament seats. With the negotiation stalled, the PR is said to have become tired of it all and had taken a take-it-or-leave-it attitude. Jeffrey is still open to talks but clearly be sees the impossibility of reaching any sort of agreement with SAPP demanding 40 state seats. This has almost established a scenario in which SAPP may well be ignored both by PR and UBA.

So what’s the next option for SAPP? It might be thinking about negotiating with SPF (Sabah People’s Front), but SPF is even more unclear about its own direction. The much anticipated infusion of BN leaders said to be intending to jump to SPF is yet to be realised, and may now be in doubt with so much vacillations and undercurrent calculations and miscalculations going on. Even if SPF gets the boost in leadership charisma, SAPP would still be hitting a thick wall if it continues with a demand for 40 seats. If it insists on taking this lion’s share of seats with both PR and UBA, it might as well forget about dealing with any party, local or national, and go on to contest the election on its own. But then it will have to wonder how much of the 40 seats it will be able to win, and will it be willing to be the election spoiler, breaking the opposition’s votes and give victory to BN?

Meanwhile Yong should remind himself the potency of the Borneo Agenda and how much it is now catching the imagination of Sabahans, and how it would benefit SAPP tremendously to tap on to this political potency. Also, Yong  shouldn’t discount the possibility of STAR taking on the Chinese state seats with its own Chinese candidates if SAPP feels it is below its dignity to play the role of a Chinese UBA component. Really, it is not about who will become the CM, but about how the opposition can beat the BN – a Herculean task even if the opposition parties can agree to co-operate like humble gentlemen.