What is the new political scenario going to be like now? (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)

We must remember, going by the rule-of-thumb (and not necessarily scientific analysis), 30% of the people are pro-government (so nothing you can say would convince them that Anwar is innocent), 30% are pro-opposition (so nothing you can say would convince them that Anwar is guilty), while 40% of the people are sitting on the fence (atas pagar or ‘floating’ voters).


Raja Petra Kamarudin

I was only half right. I said in my New Year’s Day interview with the New Straits Times (which the other news agencies such as Utusan Malaysia and Berita Harian also picked up, giving the impression that my interview was with them) that Anwar Ibrahim was given a fair trial but that he would most likely still be sent to jail.

That attracted a lot of accusations that I had been bought, had sold out, and whatnot.

I said Anwar had been given a fair trial because I know the Solicitor-General and Solicitor-General II (although not personally). The Solicitor-General is the brother of a very close lawyer friend whom I have great respect for while another very close lawyer friend told me that the Solicitor-General II is a pious and god-fearing man who would never send an innocent man to jail.

However, I do not know the judge or have close friends who do. Hence I still had reservations as to whether the judge would do the right thing. Ultimately, it is the judge who decides which side — the Defence or the Prosecution — had done a better job at arguing their case.

In my hati kecik (small heart), I actually wanted Anwar to be sent to jail. Maybe this is for very selfish reasons — and that is so that I can be proven right and Haris Ibrahim proven wrong.

You see; Haris received some very distressing information from his Deep Throats very high up in the government. And that information is that Anwar had made a deal with Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. Anwar would be acquitted of the sodomy charge and in turn he would ensure that Pakatan Rakyat does not win enough parliament seats to form the next federal government.

How Anwar will do this was not revealed but if I had to mastermind something like that I would know exactly how to do it. And it would be so subtle that no one would smell a rat (and not by openly whacking Pakatan Rakyat or its leaders in the mainstream media, which is so obvious it would be the work of schoolboys).

Anyway, the only way Haris could be proven wrong with regards to the alleged deal between Anwar and Najib would be if Anwar were found guilty (though of course he can always appeal today’s decision and the Federal Court then overturns the lower court’s decision).

Granted the Prosecution too can appeal today’s decision and the Federal Court can find Anwar guilty and he can still be sent to jail at a later date. However, this can be the ‘back up plan’. In the event Anwar renegades on his deal, Najib can always take a second bite of the cherry.

But that is, of course, mere speculation and dependent on whether such a deal has, in fact, been made — which my own Deep Throats tell me no deal has been made.

Invariably, I certainly believe my own Deep Throats, as I do not know who Haris’s Deep Throats are. Hence I told Haris that my Deep Throats tell me that his information is not correct, much to Haris’ relief (who also believe my Deep Throats as well).

Now, what is the effect of today’s decision going to be? As follows are some possible scenarios.

Anwar says that Malaysia’s judicial system is corrupt. Now that he has been acquitted, can he still say that? If the judicial system is corrupt and if court cases can be fixed and since Anwar has been acquitted by this corrupt system, would that not then mean that Anwar is actually guilty? Only a corrupt court would acquit a guilty person (and vice versa) and the court, according to Anwar, is corrupt.

So Anwar can no longer say that the court is corrupt but that he got a fair trial in a non-corrupt court presided by a non-corrupt judge. To say otherwise would insinuate that he is actually guilty.

Then, say, the government now charges Anwar for the crime of making a false police report regarding the porn video. Then the Omega watch is adduced in court plus the Chinese prostitute testifies that she was the woman in the video and she confirms that it was Anwar whom she had sex with. Renowned expert witnesses from the US will also testify that the video is not a forgery and has not been doctored.

With such a watertight case, Anwar would be found guilty and would be sent to jail. Can Anwar now claim that he is a victim of an unfair trial? He was acquitted today. So the court must be fair and not corrupted if he was acquitted or else that would mean he is guilty.

We must remember, going by the rule-of-thumb (and not necessarily scientific analysis), 30% of the people are pro-government (so nothing you can say would convince them that Anwar is innocent), 30% are pro-opposition (so nothing you can say would convince them that Anwar is guilty), while 40% of the people are sitting on the fence (atas pagar or ‘floating’ voters).

It is no use working on the 30% of either side. They are already ‘converted’, either way. You need to capture the 40%. And with the 2008 election (and maybe for the next election as well) being a 49%-51% outcome (a margin of only 2% either way), 40% is an extremely large market and would determine who gets to form the next government.

Forget about the 30% (pro-government or pro-opposition). They are already a ‘locked’ market. It is the 40% floating group that you need to convince. And how would this 40% now perceive today’s court ruling?

Would they be convinced that Najib is really pushing for reforms, as he says he is? Would they be convinced that the judiciary is not corrupt, as what the opposition says? Would they think that under the present circumstances (proven today in court) maybe Najib should be given the benefit of the doubt and be allowed another term to realise his reforms, which have just started and needs time to mature?

I am not concerned about the readers of Malaysia Today. You are already pro-opposition and many of you are Anwaristas as well. I don’t care about those who never read Malaysia Today. They are pro-government and hate me like hell. I am more concerned about the 40% who are going to decide who will get to form the next federal government.

These 40% are neither pro-opposition nor Anwaristas. And they are the real ‘Third Force’. They are the real ‘Kingmakers’. They will decide if Najib stays on as Prime Minister or Anwar gets to take over. It is not you Malaysia Today readers who are going to decide this.

Let me end with another possible scenario. Because Najib ‘played fair’ and did not instruct the judge to send Anwar to jail, Umno turns on Najib. With Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s backing, a move is made to force Najib to resign. Najib then resigns and Muhyiddin Yassin takes over.

The voters hate Rosmah Mansor. And because of that many may still vote Pakatan Rakyat (just like what they did in 2008 when they voted against Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi because they hated his son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin).  But now there is no longer any Rosmah to hate. She has gone.

So, what do we get? While Anwar Ibrahim remains the ‘de factor’ opposition leader, Dr Mahathir takes over as the ‘de facto’ Prime Minister. Malaysia is going to see Dr Mahathir back in the saddle.

The trouble is many of you are such novices that unless I spell it out like I am talking to primary school kids many of you can’t see the trees for the forest.

Now let’s continue the Raja Petra Kamarudin whacking campaign. I am sure that will guarantee many of the 40% are going to vote Pakatan Rakyat in the next election.

Hah! Kalau kata bodoh macam lembu marah!

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2012/01/blog-post_09.html