Election guessing game again
In our political system, the government, federal or state, may dissolve the state assemblies or Parliament at any time to allow it to go back to the voters and put its fate in the hands of the people it claims to represent. One calls elections when it is beneficial or advantageous to do so. This is true for both state governments and Federal Government.
THE year that is ending can be remembered for a lot of things, but one that is rather significant is that, less than a week to 2012, there is not going to be a general election this year despite what we have read and heard these past 12 months.
Political observers, analysts or pundits with a blog or a website or allocated some column centimetres in newspapers must have collectively put in millions of words on why the general election would have been held in the first, or second, or third or fourth quarter of the year.
Some were so sure of their information that one could not be faulted for thinking that these guys were printing election posters on the side. Alas, they did not have access to the prime minister’s thinking. All else, as they say, is speculation.Yet, we lapped them all up because we love the idea of an election. Also we have been living in such a politically intense environment that we would not be wrong to conclude that an election would just be something the doctor ordered to cure us of all our ills.
We did have the Sarawak election, which Barisan Nasional won handily except for urban centres where the largely Chinese voters threw their support behind DAP. Now analysts, observers and pundits are saying elections would be in the first quarter, just after the Chinese New Year, or early in the second quarter, next year. Many reasons were given, including the uncertainty in the global economy, and the seemingly stronger BN now.
Well, if they keep it up, they will get it right, sooner or later. The thing about the general election is that the opposition seems to be the most keen to have it early. Since Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak assumed the premiership, they have been talking up the possibility of snap elections. They may have argued the need for Najib to get a fresh mandate, but surely their interest in early polls was to ride on the momentum of their March 2008 performance. They also assumed, not without basis, that BN was hurting and shell-shocked from the outcome of the 12th general election.
A young opposition member of parliament on the radio early this year suggested that Najib should have called the election already. The reason? I am not so sure. I suppose she liked elections. I believe, ideally, a full five-year term would be good. At least we would make sure we do not spend too much on elections. Technically, Najib need not be rushed into calling one. He has until March 2013 before the current term lapses, and beyond that, another six months to dissolve Parliament and call for elections. If he wants to, the prime minister could make the anticipation of the election a grind for those keen on having it early.
If he delays, the government would presumably be stronger, especially with its transformation and economic plans coming to fruition one by one. The BN coalition, with member parties almost suffering from a crisis of confidence post-March 2008, is now stronger. At the same time, in the opposition grouping, held together by a band aid of common purpose, there is now some disquiet within the ranks. There have been flare-ups between parties, as well as internally. But to their credit, they have managed to put forth a bold, united public face.
After their surprise performance in 2008, the opposition’s mission was to oust the present government and form its own in Putrajaya. However now, in private, the script has changed — their mission is to keep denying BN its two-thirds majority. DAP and Pas, for instance, seem more interested in increasing their seats and retaining the states they control. Parti Keadilan Rakyat, on the other hand, looks more like a one-trick pony consumed by the travails of its supreme leader. The conventional wisdom would suggest that the longer it takes to have the elections, the worse it would get for them. For the government, presumably, it would get better.
The joker in the pack is, of course, the global economy. Troubles in the eurozone countries would have major consequences for the global economy, and as a major trading nation, Malaysia could be affected significantly. Thus, before that happens, Najib may need to call a general election soon. Well, that’s my analysis and punditry, not too original, I am afraid. Interestingly, the euphoria for a general election is not replicated in the states governed by either PKR, DAP or Pas.
The chief minister of Penang and menteris besar of Selangor, Kelantan and Kedah have suggested that they may not be too keen to follow the federal route and dissolve their respective state assemblies together with Putrajaya. So what gives? Najib is afraid and worried for not calling the general election quickly, but they are being strategic for not wanting to hold their state elections at the same time? If BN is stalling and clinging to power, what about them then? At the end of the day, they must have found out that governing is another kettle of fish altogether.
In our political system, the government, federal or state, may dissolve the state assemblies or Parliament at any time to allow it to go back to the voters and put its fate in the hands of the people it claims to represent. One calls elections when it is beneficial or advantageous to do so. This is true for both state governments and Federal Government.
Maybe the general election will be next year, sooner rather than later, or so say the pundits and analysts. Let us just hope that all the states, except Sarawak, would have their elections at the same time, too. If nothing else it will spare us of endless, excessive politicking.
Happy New Year.
