Calling Tenang, Are You There?

Majority to PR : 143 – 155 votes

Dawning Eyes

All “ceramahs” have to stop. Time of writing for this forecast is12.09 a.m. Sunday morning.

I am not over-zealous nor conservative with the figures but rather on the gut-feel of what Sunday evening will bring for this Tenang by-election.

My bottom dollar is still for cikgu Normala. The first woman “adun” from PAS is a good omen for Johor and she is going to set free the butterfly effect in our Malaysian political scenario for a change!

There are a number of forecasts in favour for BN to win in this Tenang by-election even with a lesser majority. Well, I beg to differ.

It is difficult to garner support from the Malays and for PR, the best they could be happy with, is even with 30% support from them.

The hope is from the Chinese and if PR could garner 75% and above, it will be a different ball game.

PR has the edge with the Indians support even at 55% will be a good deal.

The probability of a win for PR in this forecast is much depended on the turnout to vote. If the turnout is between 79% and 84% then a slim margin of majority for PR will definitely be an upset for BN.

With a negligible number of postal votes, then it is not difficult to create an off-set.