BN – 6100, PAS – 8200

Wenger J Khairy is now prepared to make a prediction for tomorrows election:
BN will get around 6,100 votes
PAS will get around 8,200 votes

How and Why

The Case for BN

We must look at this number from 2 standpoints – the first being the retention percentage for the votes. At best BN can hope to retain only 70% of those who voted for them in 2008, the reasons being that 3 out of 10 of those will not bother to vote as it is the fasting month and the choice of candidate and his baggage .

But that said, BN will do well in converting some of the ex-PAS voters. We can safely assume that 2 out of 10 who voted PAS in 08 will turn tail and revote BN, due to the big issue PAS on the ground has with DAP.

Add the numbers altogether and you'd get 6101 votes.

The Case for PAS

For PAS, I believe that 20% of those who voted in 2008 will not reappear in 2009, due to the combination of them being hantus, the fasting month and out of displeasure towards the Pakatan ideology. That means, in actual fact, PAS would have lost 4,000 votes, with some chosing not to vote and others voting BN.

However, the issue with the Lunas ADUN is a definitely a positive for PAS as it will stir up the sympathy factor. You see the character assassination attempts on UMNO's Rohaizat will discourage UMNO voters, but does not mean it will encourage PAS voters. The impending coup-de-tat in Kedah however is another story altogether – that will definitely serve to fire up the party faithful who may have been having questions of their own on Salleh Man and the many salacious sotries coming out of the blogs.

So PAS majority is reduced from 5,433 votes to a mere 2,100 votes.

But who will claim victory?

It will be I, Wenger J Khairy!

http://wengerkhairy.blogspot.com/2009/08/bn-6100-pas-8200.html

Raja Petra Kamarudin is prepared to up the stakes to:

BN – 5,500; PAS – 9,500. So PAS's majority will be 4,000, a reduction of 1,400