5,500 to 28,000 Malaysians to die of H1N1?

Does Tiong Lai agree with WHO estimates that some 110,000 to 500,000 people in Malaysia need hospitalization in A(H1N1) outbreak with 5,500 to 28,000 deaths?

Lim Kit Siang

At a recent briefing to the National Influenza Pandemic Task Force meeting (July 27, 2009), Dr Tee Ah Sian, director of communicable diseases of WHO, painted a possible scenario for the Malaysian A (H1N1) pandemic.

For our 27.7 million population, if simply 20% are at risk and exposed, then some 5.5 million people will contract the A (H1N1) flu. Based on other serious influenza statistics, if 2% to 9% require hospitalisation then, some 110,000 to 500,000, respectively, would need hospital care.

If the case fatality rate is estimated to be from 0.1% to 0.5%, then some 5,500 to 28,000 of infected patients would die, respectively.

In the latest updates of the most seriously ill patients identified and confirmed infections, the global case fatality rate has risen from the 0.4% to 0.66%.

Liow should state publicly whether he endorses the WHO estimates and warning that some 110,000 to 500,000 people in Malaysia would have to seek hospitalization in the A(H1N1) outbreak and that there could be as many as 5,500 to 28,000 deaths from the deadly flu.