Stronghold Johor

Reading the interview of what Chua Soi Lek said in pertinent to “testing (BN stronghold) Johor” has gotten me to thinking about whether this statement still holds true.

Yes, no doubt about it during the last federal elections where the voters delivered BN 25 out of 26 parliamentary seat and 50 out of 56 state seats. A massive victory, one would say after looking at the results. If one were to actually analyse the “real” results, they would know that there was actually a swing of 11.1% to the opposition candidates. Seats that were won convincingly during the 2004 elections did not look rosy after the 2008 elections. 

Of the 26 parliamentary seats, the BN lost ground in all of them. P156 Kota Tinggi cannot be taken into consideration in this calculation owing to the fact that the seat was won by BN uncontested in 2004. If we were to leave that out, the results will show that it swung 11.1% to the opposition as compared to the 2004 elections. 

Of the 56 state seats, BN only increased their percentages in N25-Rengit (2.8%), N32-Endau (0.2%) and N36-Sedili (2.0%). Once again, N24-Senggarang and N38-Penawar cannot be included in this calculation for the same reasons as P156. All 56 other state seats exhibited a shift to the opposition as high as 24.7% in N13-Sungai Abong, and 22.1% in N48-Skudai. Similarly, the results show an 11.1% swing towards the opposition for the Johor state seats during the last elections. 

Additionally, N10-Tangkak and N23-Penggaram were won by BN with less than 1,000 votes each. Another 1,000 votes for the opposition would also nab N2-Jementah and N6-Bekok as well.  

P142-Labis where CSL’s son won actually swung towards the opposition by 13.8% (which is higher than the State average of 11.1%). In 2004, CSL contested this seat and won by a majority of 10,729 votes. In 2008, his son Chua Tee Yong contested this seat and won by a reduced majority of 4,094 votes. An 11.1% swing now would wipe out BN in Labis. If a by-election is held today and Pakatan’s candidate wins by 1 vote, that would mean another 8.5% swing to PR. 

Let’s face facts here. Johor will still maintain a BN state government unless there’s a minimal swing of 15.5% towards the opposition but it can no longer be tagged as a BN stronghold anymore. Sabah and Sarawak would assume that role. 

Currently there are 11 Ministers from Johor. They include Subramaniam Sathasivam (P140-Segamat), Muhyiddin Yassin (P143-Pagoh), Razali Ibrahim (P146-Muar), Wee Ka Siong (P148-Ayer Hitam), Mohd. Puad Zarkashi (P150-Batu Pahat), Hou Kok Chung (P152-Kluang), Hishammuddin Tun Hussein (P153-Sembrong), Abdul Latif Ahmad (P154-Mersing), Khaled Nordin (P159-Pasir Gudang), Ahmad Maslan (P164-Pontian) and Wee Jeck Seng (P165-Tanjong Piai). 

Alongside these ministers are a few ex-heavyweights including Syed Hamid (P156-Kota Tinggi), Azalina Othman (P157-Penggerang), and Ong Ka Ting (P163-Kulai). 

Will these people still contest the same seats in the next elections? Let us analyse their positions and make a logical assumption. The 11 + 3 is: 

P140-Segamat: 8.1% swing in 2008. PR needs another 5.0% swing to unseat BN.

P143-Pagoh: 10.2% swing in 2008. PR needs another 20.8% swing to unseat BN.

P146-Muar: 14.5% swing in 2008. PR needs another 7.7% swing to unseat BN.

P148-Ayer Hitam: 3.4% swing in 2008. PR needs another 25.3% swing to unseat BN.

P150-Batu Pahat: 15.1% swing in 2008. PR needs another 11.8% swing to unseat BN.

P152-Kluang: 13.8% swing in 2008. PR needs another 3.5% swing to unseat BN.

P153-Sembrong: 10.8% swing in 2008. PR needs another 23% swing to unseat BN.

P154-Mersing: 1.5% swing in 2008. PR needs another 25.1% swing to unseat BN.

P159-Pasir Gudang: 12.5% swing in 2008. PR needs another 15.6% swing to unseat BN.

P164-Pontian: 10.2% swing in 2008. PR needs another 22.0% swing to unseat BN.

P165-Tanjong Piai: 15.9% swing in 2008. PR needs another 17.5% swing to unseat BN.

P156-Kota Tinggi: Not contested in 2004. PR needs another 35.0% swing to unseat BN.

P157-Penggerang: Candidate won uncontested in 2004 and 2008.

P163-Kulai: 6.0% swing in 2008. PR needs another 17.5% swing to unseat BN. 

From the results shown above, the seats where PR should be able to wrestle from BN include Segamat, Muar, and Kluang. Syed Hamid, Azalina Othman and Ong Ka Ting might not be amongst the candidates named in the next elections and Subramaniam, Razali Ibrahim and Hou Kok Chung might get these “safe” pro-BN constituencies. 

The State seats that requires a 10% or less swing to Pakatan (for BN to lose) are N10-Tangkak, N16-Sungai Balang, N19-Yong Peng, N2-Jementah, N23-Penggaram, N24-Senggarang, N43-Permas, N51-Bukit Batu, N55-Pekan Nenas, N57-Bukit Serampang and N9-Gambir. Likewise, the Parliamentary seats are P140-Segamat, P142-Labis, P144-Ledang, P146-Muar, P152-Kluang and P162-Gelang Patah.  

Eleven State seats and six Parliamentary seats are rather unstable. My guess would be a massive shift by the head honchos to “safer” seats somewhere in Pahang because the East Malaysians might not accept them as genuine representatives. 

Pakatan, get your arse into motion now. Winning Johor might not be easy but you will never know unless you try. Penang, Perak, Kelantan and Selangor will definitely be Pakatan’s strongholds now. Let’s get the other states!

Hakim Joe