GE14: ‘BN will win between 125 and 140 seats’
(Berita Daily) – The head of a local prominent think-tank today predicted that Barisan Nasional will be able to retain power in GE14 by winning between 125 and 140 seats but Pakatan Harapan will win a greater share of popular votes.
In the last general election, BN won 133 seats in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat but the then opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat gained 50.87% of the popular votes.
“Although there are strong undercurrents at work, Pakatan Harapan will not be able to overcome the power of incumbency which PM Najib Razak and Umno/Barisan enjoy,” said Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute CEO and director Michael Yeoh today.
“Umno is expected to win back several seats from PAS, PKR and Amanah,” he added in an article which was published in The Star today.
He also said that the Mahathir factor may favour Pakatan in Kedah with a possible win of the state government.
“However, with Mukhriz Mahathir out of Kedah Umno, Umno appears more united than before and this could reduce internal bickering and sabotage.
“An Umno-PAS unity government in Kedah cannot be ruled out to prevent a Pakatan state government,” he added.
As for Kelantan, Yeoh said that three-cornered fights and the absence of former menteri besar Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat may make it harder for PAS to retain the state government.
However he added that a PAS-Umno coalition in Kelantan could not be ruled out, neither can a straight narrow win by Umno.
He also said that it was uncertain if DAP can deliver the Chinese votes to Amanah in GE14.
“The greater challenge facing Amanah is whether the traditional PAS voters will still solidly remain with PAS or are willing to vote for Amanah.
“The prognosis for Amanah doesn’t look good as PAS may win several seats in a contest against it. This may even result in these seats being won by Umno.
“In the final analysis, Umno may win between 85 and 100 seats, MCA can win between five and 12, and Gerakan may win one to three seats. MIC is likely to win two to four seats,” added Yeoh.
Shafie factor in Sabah
Yeoh also predicted that BN’s vote bank in Sarawak is set to remain with Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) retaining all their seats.
He said Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) should also retain its current seats.
“Should SUPP and UPP resolve their conflict and merge before the election, they are likely to win two to three additional seats.”.
In Sabah, he said, Umno would still retain power but will face a strong challenge from Shafie Apdal’s Warisan, which appears to be flushed with cash.
In these likely scenario, Yeoh said that Najib looks set to remain in office as prime minister.
However he added that what would be interesting post-GE14 is the Umno party elections.
“In the Umno party elections to be held after GE14, it will be interesting to see the next line-up of vice presidents because from that rank will emerge the future leadership of the country.
“What matters more to Umno is not how many seats BN will win but how many Umno would.
“If it maintains or increases its seats even though other BN parties fare less well, the PM’s position would be secure. All indications are pointing to Umno winning more than it did in 2013,” he said.
