Pakatan nod puts Dr M on icy footing

(MMO) – Despite securing Pakatan Harapan’s endorsement to be its candidate for prime minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s position is by no means secure.

While the chairman of the federal Opposition pact will be eager to focus his attention on defeating Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 14th general election, he must first contend with discontent brewing over his selection.

His main obstacle — if he cannot depend on DAP — is to win over pockets of resistance among PKR grassroots leaders who are unconvinced the former prime minister will actually step aside for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Anwar, the deputy whom Dr Mahathir sacked in 1998, is due to be released from prison in June. The plan is for the pact, if it wins federal power, to secure a royal pardon that will allow him to contest a federal seat and take over as prime minister.

The ex-PM must also contend with unhappiness from Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah), which ended up with the fewest seat of the four PH components. Dr Mahathir’s party, despite being the smallest and youngest, was given the most.

His strongest ally appears to be DAP, which is keen to avoid being viewed as the dominant party of the pact due to having the most federal lawmakers of the four parties.

DAP has taken a backseat since the former prime minister and his Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) came aboard, in an apparent bid to let Dr Mahathir assume the face of the pact.

The Chinese-dominated party has also swiftly and decisively brushed aside opposition and dissent towards its backing for Dr Mahathir, dismissing these as isolated resistance, even those coming from the daughter of its late chairman, Karpal Singh.

It is said that DAP is also able to wield influence over Amanah, which should help to minimise any disaffection the Islamist party may have over the seat distribution.

The problem, then, remains with PKR, which continues to exhibit an independent streak. Its Selangor chapter demonstrated this by openly rejecting Dr Mahathir’s selection as PH’s candidate for PM.

The confluence suggests that — despite the lion’s share of seats for PPBM — DAP remains the driving force behind the pact, and Dr Mahathir and his party are necessary only to help it secure the Malay vote crucial for PH to have any chance of challenging Umno and BN at the ballot box.

As the general election draws nearer, the disquiet will only worsen, and may grow to derail the pact’s ambition of finally defeating BN.

Already there are questions over how effective PPBM and Amanah will be with infiltrating the Malay heartland considered Umno’s bastion. This is before considering the spanner that Islamist opposition party PAS will throw into the works by forcing multi-cornered contests in such seats.

It also remains to be seen if the Malay community is convinced by the political ploy of giving PPBM the most seats in a bid to portray the PH past as led by Malays.

PPBM also remains on tenterhooks over the validity of its inaugural annual general meeting, upon which its status as a political party rests.

The Registrar of Societies (RoS) has yet to clear the AGM that some members have said was irregular, and PPBM is still at risk of deregistration that will prevent its candidates from standing in the election on its tickets.

The fledgling party also lacks presence in all the corners of the peninsula that it must contest, adding doubts about the quality of the challenge it will put up against Umno.

Dr Mahathir appears to be banking on unhappiness among Umno leaders who are overlooked as candidates or those who are dropped, apparent as his party is running is marginal seats.

But he will be betting PPBM and PH’s chances on something that may ultimately not emerge in sufficient strength to help overcome the existing odds.

He will also find little help from Amanah in wooing over voters in such seats; the Islamist party is still finding its footing with the rural Malay audience.

For a politician once used to having his way, Dr Mahathir must be feeling some frustration over the divided support from his supposed allies.

He must wonder how much of PKR is truly behind him, given his storied background with Anwar and his family. Has his deputy truly forgiven him and directed his party to support the man who had maligned him so viciously before?

While Anwar’s wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, is seemingly on board, PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali appears to still be holding the fort against the dominant DAP, and now, Dr Mahathir and PPBM.

With so much intrigue among what are supposed to be his allies, the veteran politician is about to take the biggest gamble of his career, one in which he stands to lose everything.

For Dr Mahathir, the road to Putrajaya is now made entirely of thin ice.