Big win for BN from Azmin factor, vote swing?

High turnout, return of outstation voters and Amanah confusion could make a difference, say professors.

(FMT) – A high voter turnout at today’s parliamentary by-election in Sungai Besar here could help secure a bigger victory for Barisan Nasional (BN) compared to the 2013 general election result, according to a political analyst.

In 2013, the late Noriah Kasnon was returned for a third term with a narrow majority of 399 votes against a challenger from PAS.

However, Prof Dr Azmi Hassan, a geo-strategist at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, told Bernama that a voter turnout of at least 80 per cent could result in a swing.

Another academician, Prof Mohd Fuad Mat Jali of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, was quoted as saying that BN could secure a majority of about 1,000 votes or more if it maximises use of its party machinery in Sungai Besar and brought back voters living outside the constituency.

Prof Azmi said that if there was a lower voter turnout, BN could depend on the wind of change among the Chinese voters in Sekinchan, and the Azmin Ali factor, in which Azmin, who is Selangor menteri besar, is seen as being divided in his support of two rival candidates (from PAS and Parti Amanah Negara).

There was “a big possibility” that supporters of Pakatan Harapan could be confused, to the benefit of BN. There had been a ‘wind of change’ among Chinese voters in Sekinchan, where previously the majority had rejected BN at the general election.

Azmi said the change was partly due to the release this week of two Sekinchan fishermen detained in Indonesia, as well as the expected split in votes caused by the entry of an Amanah candidate in the by-election which he felt had confused the voters.

He said the fence-sitters also played a big role in determining the majority of votes.

Azmi believed that the wide news coverage of the by-election would convince many Sungai Besar voters living outside the constituency to return home to vote.

Three candidates are contending the by-election: Sungai Panjang state assemblyman Budiman Mohd Zohdi (BN); Meru state assemblyman Dr Abdul Rani Othman (PAS) and Azhar Abdul Shukur of Amanah.