PAS as a third force

By MT Webmaster Last updated Jun 12, 2016

In short, PAS either remains a poor virgin or it can become a rich prostitute. PAS cannot become a virgin prostitute because no such thing exists. And if you want to take your people to heaven then play clean politics. But if you aspire for political power then take the road to hell. And in a national coalition you need to become a devil because angels cannot attain political power.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

The Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections are very important to Umno, PAS and Amanah. That is why all three parties are contesting these two by-elections. These two constituencies comprise of two-thirds Malay voters and one-third non-Malays. Furthermore, Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are semi-urban seats. They are ‘kampung’ enough in environment but still ‘modern’ in population mentality.

Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are reflective of the majority of the constituencies in West Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak in East Malaysia are a different kettle of fish, of course). Even Kuantan, Kota Bharu and Kuala Terengganu (on the East Coast) would be almost like Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar in both voter make-up and mentality of voters – except in Kuala Terengganu where the Malay voters would be about 95-97% instead of two-thirds.

Hence Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar can give you a pretty good idea of what to expect in the next general election in 2018 or so. The recent Sarawak state election has given us an insight into what to expect for East Malaysia come 2018. Now Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar will give us an idea of the expected outcome in most West Malaysian seats that comprise of about 55-65% Malay voters.

There are no Indian majority seats (at best only about 30% Indian voters in about 10% of the seats) while in about 20% of the seats the Chinese voters are significant. Then 25% of the seats come from East Malaysia (56 out of 222 parliament seats) and that ratio has to be maintained (by law). So that leaves the balance 55% of the seats where the Malay voters will decide the outcome. And in most of those seats the Malays are between 55% (in the semi-urban areas) to as high as 95% in some places (such as those seats in the Malay heartland).

That is the reality. And Umno, PAS and Amanah know this. The recent Sarawak state election has shown that it is best you leave East Malaysia to the locals and that the federal-based parties might as well not waste too much time and money there (other than just to’ show a presence’ for ego purposes).

So this leaves only the 75% remaining West Malaysian seats where about 55% are carbon copies of Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar — which Umno, PAS and Amanah are fighting over and which will be decided in 12 days’ time on 18th June 2016.

Of course, you cannot apply the rule of thumb that whoever wins the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections on 18th June 2016 is going to be guaranteed the next general election. I mean it is like I failed my trial exams in standard six (1962) and form three (1965) but I passed my final exams both times (in fact I got ‘A’ after getting ‘F’ during the trials). Nevertheless, the outcome of the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections can give the Chinese bookies a good idea on what odds to take for the next general election in two years’ time.

Okay, in two weeks from now we shall discuss the by-election post mortem. But if I were asked to put my money where my mouth is, I would say that Umno will win Kuala Kangsar mainly because of the jasa of the late Member of Parliament, Wan Mohammad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad. Khair-il Anuar had served Kuala Kangsar well and his widow, who is contesting that seat, is campaigning on the platform of continuing her late husband’s legacy.

The Kuala Kangsar voters would probably give her the two years she is asking for to complete the work of her husband. It is only two years and they have nothing to lose anyway because the next general election will be in 2018. And Umno will make sure she delivers because that seat can easily fall to the opposition in 2018 if they do not deliver. So expect Christmas early in Kuala Kangsar.

In Selangor there is a serious internal conflict in the state government. And as much as they pretend nothing serious is going on, Pakatan Harapan or Selangor is a bomb waiting to go off. There is a serious problem between different factions within PKR and serious problems within DAP as well. There are also problems between PAS and Pakatan Harapan and problems between DAP and PKR regarding PAS. They are all just waiting until the Sungai Besar by-election is over before taking out their guns and start shooting.

So the internal issues in PKR, DAP, Pakatan Harapan and the Selangor state government are going to have an affect on the Sungai Besar by-election. DAP and Amanah do not want PAS to win and they would rather the seat goes to Umno than to PAS. Some in PKR do not want Amanah to win because they feel that PKR should contest that seat instead. Some in PAS do not want PAS to win because the PAS candidate is seen as an Amanah Trojan Horse.

So, again, if I were asked to put my money where my mouth is, I would give Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar to Umno with maybe a 52% to 48% odds. That is how close the odds are going to be but then since Umno will take the 52% and PAS and Amanah need to share the balance 48% then, of course, Umno will sweep both seats.

So, say today is 19th June 2016 and the two by-elections are over and Umno won both seats. Where does PAS go from there? What is it going to do for the next two years until the 2018 general election?

Albert Einstein is credited with saying, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” So, this is the question I am going to ask. Is PAS insane for doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results?

What does PAS want? What does it hope to achieve? What is its vision and mission? I have said this before back in the 1980s and I am going to say this again (Mustafa Ali can probably remember our discussion in Masjid Kalom in Kuala Ibai, Terengganu): what does PAS want?

Back in the 1980s Mustafa Ali said PAS just wants to propagate Islam. I then asked Mustafa Ali then why not start a missionary movement? Why start a political party? Mustafa Ali then said you need a political party to propagate Islam because without political power you will never be able to do what you want to do.

Fair enough. Everything in Malaysia is decided by politics. Without political power there is very little you can do. And Islam and politics can never be separated anyway. Prophet Muhammad did not just start a religion. He started a movement with religion as its platform. In Islam, separation of church and state does not exist. Actually, it does not exist in Judaism and Christianity as well. But then Christians no longer follow the teachings of Jesus Christ (the Jews still do to a point).

So PAS can continue to propagate Islam if it so wishes — in case today they still subscribe to what they said in the 1980s. And PAS can continue doing so through politics — if this is still the strategy like it was back in 1951. But then PAS has to decide whether it wants to continue to be a national party or revert to being a regional party in the mainly Malay heartland.

PAS started as a regional party in the Malay heartland and then it transformed into a national party. But to become a national party it could no longer do it on its own or as a solo party. It needed to enter into a coalition like Umno did with Barisan Nasional. Even Umno cannot gain power on its own without Barisan Nasional. And neither can PAS unless it joins or forms a coalition.

As a solo party or lone wolf, PAS can do whatever it likes. As a member of a coalition it needs to compromise and sacrifice a lot. Is PAS prepared to compromise its Islamic principles or is PAS going to place its aqidah and the Qur’an above all else — even above their own life, like what Muslims are expected to do?

Yes, the main question is, does PAS want to become a true-blue political party or does PAS still want to uphold Islam as its guiding light and moral compass? It cannot be both. You cannot be a true Muslim in politics. Politics is dirty. Politics is manipulative. Politics is Machiavellian. In politics you must win by hook or by crook. You must even use and exploit Islam and the Qur’an to win in politics if need be.

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(Free Malaysia Today) – PAS’s ditching of its rebranding efforts to woo non-Muslim support, as seen in its recent muktamar in Kelantan, is set to attract more support for the party with the rise of Islamisation in Malaysia, says a Singapore political analyst.

“They don’t mind being confined to their stronghold in the northern Malay belt, just so long as they can apply hudud somehow. With Islamisation on the rise, time is on their side,” Singapore’s Straits Times quoted S Rajaratnam School of International Studies senior fellow Oh Ei Sun as saying.

He said the party leaders were now making “familiar sounds” for hudud, a far cry from slogans such as “Welfare State” and “PAS for All.”

PAS leaders stepped up their call for hudud during its recent muktamar, following the tabling of a Private Member’s Bill in Parliament by its president Abdul Hadi Awang in late May this year.

The bill seeks to amend the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 to allow for stricter punishments, paving the way for hudud laws in Kelantan eventually.

The Singapore daily said all hopes of PAS working with other Opposition parties were gone after the jailing of former Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and the death of PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat last year, who were “two main glues” for PAS to remain in the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat or its replacement, Pakatan Harapan.

“PAS would have none of this, and that is bad news for the Opposition and for Malaysians who are keen to have a united Opposition to pressure scandal-hit Umno,” ST added.

It noted that the muktamar this year was unlike the previous one when the progressive and conservative factions openly clashed over the party’s direction.

“The calm assembly has given the party optimism that a new strategy of cooperating with others – even former arch enemy Umno – to achieve Islamic theocratic ideals will eventually bear fruit.”

Raja Petra Kamarudin RPK