Mahathir blasting off

Lim Sue Goan, Malay Mail Online

Former PM Tun Dr Mahathir has been harsh on PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak on the latter’s sixth anniversary in office. Najib is no Abdullah, and will therefore not likely to keep quiet, but the exhaustive fight between the duo is going to do Umno more harm than ever.

Najib has done plenty of things to please Dr Mahathir, including the bumiputra economic empowerment plan soon after GE13, retaining the Sedition Act, getting down on the opposition, and even the largest ever LIMA in history and renewing contracts with F1 for three more years. But all these have failed to tame down the former chief and it appears that nothing can be done to diffuse the differences between the two men.

This time, Dr Mahathir has come up with something really lethal, including the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu, 1MDB debts, luxurious jet purchase, and the enormous wealth of Najib’s stepson Riza Aziz.

For one thing Dr Mahathir has got it really convincing. He predicts that if Najib continues to lead Umno, BN will be thrashed in the next general elections. While Umno’s continuous grip of power will depend very much on developments over the next three years, the crisis has nevertheless begun to show.

On the surface, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s conviction, DAP-PAS rift over hudud and possible collapse of Pakatan Rakyat may put Umno in a relatively comfortable position. This advantage is not going to last long, though. Once the opposition camp puts itself together again and the hudud issue is set aside, the situation might be reversed.

Pakatan’s problems can be resolved, including drawing a clear line between itself and PAS, but Umno’s problems have gone to an extent as to lead the party towards conservatism with a turning back nowhere in sight.

Moreover, past experiences show that if the ruling parties have performed badly, support for the government would be thinned, irrespective of the opposition’s performance. The government’s performance now can only manage an “F.”

Political developments over the past two years have nullified all of PM Najib’s efforts in four years, including his 1Malaysia concept, government and economic transformation program, legal reforms and moderation campaign, among others, all tailored to win back the faith of young, urban, moderate and Chinese voters.

BN’s poor showing in GE13 does not mean voters will abandon the ruling coalition for good, but Umno’s conservative tilt now will make this happen.

Najib made a dramatic U-turn in the Umno general assembly, declaring the retention of the Sedition Act in violation of his election pledge. More than 150 opposition politicians and social activists have been detained since this February, including Malaysian Insider editor. This will only further disenchant urban voters.

Najib’s inaction on the hudud issue has also confounded non-Muslim BN supporters.

The lukewarm attitude towards street rallies doesn’t mean more and more people are supporting the BN now. This is something Umno has go come to terms with.

BN only managed 47 per cent of popular votes in the last general elections, majority from rural areas. After the elections, BN thought if it were to consolidate its grip on this 47 per cent, it would be safe. So it would rather give up the rest of voters.

However, this 47 per cent could get diluted over time, for instance through natural deaths and through increase in the number of young voters and human migration.

We must never underestimate Dr Mahathir’s influences among rural and older voters. Thanks to his hard criticisms against Tun Abdullah, BN lost Kedah and Perak.

In addition, economic issues could also affect the rural folks, in particular rising goods prices.

The government has intended to fill the treasury void with GST, but this new tax initiative is also going to impact rural folks who used to not paying taxes. While the government can release BR1M to cushion the impact, it must ensure it has the means to increase the subsidies and assistance year after year.

Given the 1MDB debt issue. depreciating ringgit, political instability, dampened domestic demands and absence of new strategies to lure foreign investments, it is by no means easy to revitalize the national economy.

Now that political and economic situations have gone from bad to worse, Mahathir will wrought his influences among the grassroots if the PM chooses to stay mum.

To ordinary citizens, change of administration could be too remote, but people are more concerned whether the country is moving ahead on the right track.