GE13 and the 13 predictions that came true (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)
Many are waiting for my ‘I told you so’ article. No, I am not going to write an ‘I told you so’ article. Instead, I am going to remind you of the 13 predictions that were made for the 13th General Election that came true — although there are actually more than 13 predictions that came true.
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Prediction 1: About 80% or roughly 10.4 million of the 13 million or so registered voters would come out to vote.
What did happen: About 10.5 million Malaysians came out to vote on 6th May 2013.
Prediction 2: Barisan Nasional would win more than 130 parliamentary seats but less than the 140 seats it won in the 2008 general election.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 133 parliamentary seats.
Prediction 3: Pakatan Rakyat would not win more than 100 parliamentary seats, as what the bookies predicted, but more than the 82 seats it won in the 2008 general election.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat won 89 parliamentary seats.
Prediction 4: Barisan Nasional can still form the federal government with a simple majority in Parliament even if it won just 45% of the popular votes.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional is forming the federal government with about 46-47% of the popular votes.
Prediction 5: Pakatan Rakyat would need to win at least 55% of the popular votes to see a hung parliament and about 60% or so of the popular votes to take over the federal government.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat won slightly over 51% of the popular votes and still can’t form the federal government.
Prediction 6: If Pakatan Rakyat retains Selangor there is going to be a power struggle for the post of Menteri Besar.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat still cannot decide who should be the Selangor Menteri Besar while all the other states (plus Parliament) are already swearing in their new governments.
Prediction 7: DAP would emerge the largest opposition party.
What did happen: DAP is now the largest opposition party after winning 38 parliamentary seats versus 30 for PKR and 21 for PAS.
Prediction 8: Pakatan Rakyat would lose Kedah.
What did happen: Pakatan Rakyat lost Kedah.
Prediction 9: Perak is a 50:50 situation.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 31 state seats in Perak and Pakatan Rakyat won 28 (giving BN a 3-seat majority) with Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat each winning 12 of the 24 parliamentary seats (50:50).
Prediction 10: Terengganu is a 50:50 situation.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 17 state seats in Terengganu and Pakatan Rakyat won 15 (giving BN a 2-seat majority) with Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat each winning 4 of the 8 parliamentary seats (50:50).
Prediction 11: There are 165 parliamentary seats in West Malaysia and Barisan Nasional will win 83/85 with 80/82 going to Pakatan Rakyat.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 85 parliamentary seats in West Malaysia and Pakatan Rakyat won 80.
Prediction 12: There are 57 parliamentary seats in East Malaysia (including Labuan) and Barisan Nasional will win at least 45 seats and not more than 12 going to Pakatan Rakyat.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional won 48 parliamentary seats in East Malaysia and Pakatan Rakyat won 9.
Prediction 13: Pakatan Rakyat would see a reduced majority in Kelantan.
What did happen: Barisan Nasional increased its seats from 6 to 12 in the Kelantan State Assembly and increased its parliamentary seats from 2 to 5.
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第拾叁屆大選的拾叁個預測
很多人都在等著我那篇“我已經告訴過你了”文章,但在此我想聲明我並不會寫篇那樣的文章。我只是想要提醒你我做出的13個預測都成真了—-事實上,有多過13個預測都發生了。
原文:Raja Petra Kamarudin
譯文:方宙
預測壹:大約80%的選民,即1千3百萬所有選民中的1千萬名,會參與投票。
結果:大約有1千零50萬選民在5月5號出來投票。
預測貳:囯陣會贏得至少130席,但不會比上屆的140席多。
結果:囯陣贏得133席。
預測叁:民聯正如卜基所預測般不會贏多過100席,但會比2008年的82席還要多。
結果:民聯贏得89席。
預測肆:即使只是贏得45%的選票,囯陣仍然能以簡單多數議席執政。
結果:囯陣以46-47%選票組織政府。
預測伍:民聯必須贏得55%選票才有機會促使懸吊國會,而如果他們要執政的話他們必須至少贏得60%選票。
結果:民聯贏得51%選票,但仍無法執政。
預測陸:如果民聯成功保住雪蘭莪,那他們將會為誰會出任州務大臣而頭疼。
結果:民聯至今還未宣佈誰會出任雪州大臣一職,而其他州屬經已做出宣佈了。
預測柒:行動黨會成爲最大的反對黨。
結果:行動黨現在以38席成爲最大反對黨。公正黨與伊黨分別贏得30席與21席。
預測捌:民聯將失守吉打州。
結果:民聯輸掉吉打州政權。
預測玖:霹靂將會是5-5波。
結果:囯陣贏得31個州席而民聯贏得28個(囯陣以3席之差獲勝)。在囯席方面,他們各自贏得12席。
預測拾:登嘉樓將會是5-5波
結果:囯陣贏得17個州席而民聯贏得15個(囯陣以2席之差獲勝)。在囯席方面,他們各自贏得4席。
預測拾壹:在西馬165個議席裏,囯陣會贏得83/85席,民聯80/82席
結果:囯陣在西馬贏得85個囯席而民聯則贏得80個
預測拾貳:在東馬57個議席裏,囯陣至少會贏得45席,民聯最多12席
結果:囯陣在東馬贏得48個囯席而民聯則贏得9個
預測拾叁:民聯在吉蘭丹會失去議席。
結果:囯陣從以往的6個州席增至12席,囯席則從2席增至5席。