By LIM SUE GOAN
Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE
Sin Chew Daily

On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the 2008 general election, there were rumours about the dissolution of Parliament, again. It is said that the possibility to have the next general election during the school holidays in May and June is high.

Recently, the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister have frequently visited other states and if the election is not being held in June, it would then have to wait until end of the year, since July and August would be the Ramadan and Hari Raya.

The BN needs to have the general election as soon as possible based on a few reasons.

Firstly, the BN has to make use of the money distribution effects. The government has distributed RM102.58 million of bonuses to 95,949 Felda settlers, and the RM500 BR1M aid will be distributed until April or May. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will also announce good news under the Public Service New Remuneration Scheme (SBPA) on 8 March, as well as the details about the minimum wage scheme. If the election is held during the fermentation of these positive factors, the situation will be favourable to the BN.

Secondly, the world economy is uncertain. If the West has a war with Iran and international oil prices surge to US$150 a barrel, the Europe would collapse.

The Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries are currently implementing monetary easing that pushes up prices. Imported inflation will exacerbate prices in Malaysia. Therefore, it would be best to hold the election by June.

If the election falls in June, the Pakatan Rakyat might not follow suit to dissolve state assemblies, particularly in Selangor. The Pakatan Rakyat is expected to concentrate on fighting for the federal regime and get more resources to keep state regimes after seizing the federal government.

However, it is still unknown whether the Pakatan Rakyat will be successful. Many people have started to make their guesses, including former Finance Minister Tun Daim Zainuddin, who said that the BN is having a better advantage and it will have to appoint new leaders to win back Selangor, Kedah and Kelantan.

I once wrote an article in April 2010 that "urban voters are not the one deciding the winner, but kampung, inland area, reclamation district, longhouse, plantation, Orang Asli village and suburban voters will. These areas are the bastion of the BN".

There have been various issues and disputes over the past four years, including the Bersih 2.0 rally, Lynas rare-earth refinery plant, the Jalan Sultan land acquisition and the National Feedlot Centre (NFC) scandal. Most of the time, the BN was trapped in the beaten situation and this has enabled the Pakatan Rakyat to gain more swing votes. However, have these issues also affected rural voters?

From the Sarawak state election resutls in April last year, we can see that there are signs of loosening in remote areas, but they are not enough to change the overall situation.

Whether the Pakatan Rakyat would be able to breach the BN's bastion depends on its penetration. Would it be able to reach the Malays, Orang Asli and longhouse residents?

The BN has been focusing on Kedah recently, showing that Umno is confident in gaining Malay votes.

The BN has first sent 120 state assembly members to approach people living in rural areas, listen to their difficulties and help them solve livelihood problems. Najib then openly admitted mistakes and apologised.

The request of Malays is simple. They would "have gratitude" for politicians, who care about them and are willing to spend time to talk to them.

Even after the curtain for the force abdication drama in Kedah has fallen, Umno would still be able to win Kedah back, provided that it can win a little bit more Malay and Indian votes.

The election is expected to be coming soon if the BN has ensured the stability of the Bastion.