An Analysis of Malaysia’s 12th General Election
With comments in red by Sarawak Headhunter.
1. Introduction
In our pre-election analysis, we estimated that the Opposition parties will win about 50 parliamentary seats and face a very strong challenge from DAP-Keadilan in Penang. We also warned of the strong wind blowing in the Indian and Chinese communities towards the Opposition. We did not and could not then anticipate the equally strong wave of Malay support for the Opposition which resulted in the Opposition gaining 82 seats in Parliament, denying the Barisan Nasional of its two-thirds majority, the first time since the May 1969 General Election.
The wins probably took the Opposition by surprise as well. In spite of fielding many unknown and untested candidates, the electorate voted for them. We now see the trust placed by the Opposition and the electorate being betrayed by a few of them for personal gains - for these few it will be their first and last wins.
The Opposition has to ensure that the right candidates are chosen for the coming Sarawak State Elections. The Opposition must also make sure that it identifies and gives as strong backing as it can to the candidate with the best potential to become the next Chief Minister of Sarawak. Time is running out and no such person has yet been put forward by the Opposition.
We had in our pre-election analysis noted the possibility of a divided outcome with a strong Malay government against a strong non-Malay Opposition. However, this did not materialize as Malay support for the Opposition was also strong resulting in multi racial Keadilan winning 31 seats and PAS 23 seat in Parliament. In fact, the popular votes obtained by UMNO (35.5%) and combined PAS/Keadilan (34.8%) was almost equal. Whilst the loss of Penang state to the Opposition did not come as a surprise after the first week of campaign with massive turnout at DAP ceramahs and large donations collected on the spot for the DAP candidates, the fall of Perak and Selangor was totally unexpected. What happened? What caused the massive swing?
Some facts on the 12th General Election should be noted and analysed. The Barisan Nasional within Peninsular Malaysia failed to obtain a majority of popular votes cast. It only obtained 49% of the popular votes in Peninsular Malaysia whereas the Opposition had the majority of popular votes – 51%. UMNO won 35% of popular votes against 34.8% won by PAS and Keadilan. Although the Barisan Nasional won 140 seats in Parliament, 54 seats came from Sabah and Sarawak.
Obviously Sarawak and Sabah somehow did not get a sense of what was happening in Malaya. Internet penetration is still very low and the Opposition is not only totally blacked out from the daily newspapers and TV but completely vilified. The logistics and expense of campaigning in Sarawak and Sabah also put the Opposition at a great disadvantage, while the State BN has no qualms about abusing government machinery, staff and facilities in campaigning with impunity.
The Opposition will have to come up with answers at the very least to neutralise all these or turn them to its advantage.
The Sarawak electorate, especially in the rural areas, do not like to be perceived as being anti-government or lawan perintah. To overcome this the Opposition has to start behaving and being perceived as a government in waiting rather than being perpetual troublemakers and nuisances as the State BN is fond of painting them.
It is high time to start concentrating on creating policy rather than merely running Taib and his minions down. The voters already know what Taib and his evil regime are. The question now is whether the Opposition can show that they are different and can put forward solid plans for reform in all the areas that matter, especially with regard to land and equitable economic development.
Notwithstanding that, Taib is now at his weakest and attacking him and bringing him down will lead to disarray in the ranks of his followers, none of whom may be described as leaders in any real sense of the word.
So, without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional will not have even obtained a simple majority in Parliament. If the Federal Territory was to be considered as a state, the Barisan Nasional actually lost 6 states. In Negeri Sembilan, it survives with only a 4-seat majority. In Pahang, Barisan Nasional even lost the state capital, Kuantan. Even the Barisan Nasional fortress of Johor was successfully penetrated by the Opposition this time with both DAP and PAS winning seats. There are no safe bastions for Barisan Nasional anymore.
written by Nicole, March 09, 2010 11:45:56
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written by lakian, March 06, 2010 13:56:16
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written by Nicole, March 06, 2010 10:51:34
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written by Better My, March 06, 2010 08:24:34
You top it all by far, almost making a mockery of our "dwarfed Sabah exchanges.
Really great insights to what is happening on the ground in Sabah/Sarawak, so critical to avoid the repeat of the last GE in these 2 states.
All of a sudden, with your optimism, a great shot of confidence oozes profusely from all of us with brimming smiles. You in depth articles should be read and filed, reread by E Malaysian to know the strategies for E malaysia. Deserved to be discussed with greater depths, for the people like Pankgis and Senior Rainbowhorse and other E malaysia to think about and act on.
Your further up-to-date insights are further requested for the grassroot soldiers to consider where their aims should be targeted. Our joint march to Putraja began after the last GE. You sure are contibuting to it greatly.
Another big checkmate for the bad muslim UMNO mob.
Thank You very much.
We have stopped listening to you. ISA kills Sabahan/Srawakian too. For malaysia.
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written by Midvalley, March 05, 2010 23:23:36
ARE YOU A VOTER? SIGN UP & VOTE FOR STRONG & FAIR MALAYSIA.
ONE VOTE MAKE THE DIFFERENCE FOR CHANGE.
I will buy and wear it. Someone must start this T shirt business FAST
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written by Daryl, March 05, 2010 22:28:54
Rakyat need to organize foot soldiers, printers, computers, ink and paper. Educate rakyat and give out printed copies to all people. Maybe throw in DVD player and also DVDs on speeches to counter the negative publicity PR is getting. We need to be on counter attack instead of sitting and waiting to be slaughtered. If it is already been done maybe we need to upscale it to more than 100% more.
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written by antares, March 05, 2010 21:10:15
Siapa kata rakyat biasa tidak mampu berkempen membela hak rakyat dan menyelamat dunia Malaysia!
"VOTER GETS VOTER" - "Ada Mata Lihat Kebenaran bukan Macam Mata Ikan Kering Penyokong BeNd, Ada Telinga Dengar Kebenaran bukan Pekak Bertelinga Badak Penyokong BeNd , Ada Otak Cairkan bukan Benak Macam Otak Udang Penyokong BeNd"
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written by Ocassey, March 05, 2010 19:46:02
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There should be no question at all ! No more doubt ! No more Hesitation ! No suspicion !
All PR supporters and those still in doubt must concentrate and focus the main aim to rid the nation of this BN scourge that has plagued , raped and abused the nation for the past many decades .
It will be a monumental task , bearing in mind the the deficiencies in commanding financial resourses which will come in handy during a period such as now !
NO MORE ARGUEMENTS ! FACE THE SCOURGE straight on , head on, face to face !!!!!
When the nation is already so fatally ill and strickened, the best manouver is to find the right antidote to swallow to fight off the viral attacks !
AND THE MEDICATION IS - - - mass produce the antidote and distribute to each and every one in the four corners of the nation ! VOTE PR (PKR, PAS DAP) ! Bear in mind the licencing approval of PRM will be DRAGGED ON and ON and ON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ONE BEST AND IMMEDIATE SOLUTION will be to " TAKE AWAY TWO AND ALL GO INTO ONE" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As all over the nation the scourge fights under one banner ! And ROS will keep PRM multi branded as it will be to their advantage ! WHO ARE THOSE TWO who will be magnanimous remains to be seen !!!!!!
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