No doubt Najib also can’t antagonise MCA, MIC and Gerakan. If he were to take away some seats from MCA, MIC and Gerakan and give them to PPP then this would make Umno’s lead partners very unhappy. However, if giving these seats to MCA, MIC and Gerakan would only mean that the seats would be lost to Pakatan Rakyat, Najib may have very little choice in the matter.

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Barisan Nasional is no longer the Barisan Nasional that was first mooted by Tun Razak Hussein soon after the May 13 incident of 1969. Barisan Nasional is basically Umno plus about eight political parties from East Malaysia. While the eight political parties from East Malaysia can be entrusted with the task of keeping Sabah and Sarawak within the ruling coalition, the same can’t be said for the four non-Umno parties from West Malaysia. 

Umno is fighting a lone battle to hold on to Sememanjung Malaysia without much help from the others. Hence does Umno need MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP? In terms of votes the answer would, of course, be ‘no’. But Umno knows that it cannot fight a lone battle against PKR, DAP and PAS. It needs more parties and MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP are currently not it.

MCA is a Chinese party while MIC is Indian. Gekaran and PPP can be considered multi-racial parties. However, just like PKR is a Malay-based multi-racial party and DAP a Chinese-based multi-racial party, so is Gerakan -- a Chinese-based multi-racial party. As much as they try, Gerakan, just like DAP, can’t seem to shed its Chinese image. Hence this only leaves PPP, which is seen as an Indian-based multi-racial party.

PPP was formed by the Seenivasagam brothers in 1953 as an opposition party to the then Alliance Party. Its first president was Dr Kanagaratnam Pillai. The Seenivasagam brothers were in fact very popular because they spoke up for justice, equality and the rights of the common man.

In 1969, PPP almost formed the Perak State Government. However, two of its State Assemblymen crossed over, like what happened to Pakatan Rakyat soon after the 2008 general election. In 1973, PPP joined Barisan Nasional and in 1974 it lost all the seats it had won in 1969.

Since then, PPP was nothing but a mosquito party. In every election it had to beg for seats and what it received instead were insults from Umno leaders such as Ali Rustam who publicly, during a PPP convention in Melaka, told PPP to fuck off. PPP knew that if it wanted to regain its lost glory of the 1970s, it would have to cease playing the role of a beggar and reinvent itself to become credible again.

PPP realises that the future lies with a multi-racial party and that the days of Malay, Chinese or Indian parties is long gone, although in East Malaysia parochial politics still rules the day. And that is what PPP has been quietly doing in the background over the last few years.

Six years ago, PPP actually proposed a merger with Gerakan, the only other multi-racial party in Barisan Nasional. But Gerakan never thought it was about to lose Penang so, of course, it rejected the idea. Gerakan probably now feels it should have seriously considered the proposal, whether that would have changed anything.

Since then -- the rejection by Gerakan and the insult by Ali Rustam -- PPP has been gaining ground. It now has about 500,000 members -- 48% Indians, 32% Chinese, 13% Malays, and the rest of other ethnicities. They are now well poised to make a comeback if they are given any seats to contest the coming election.

Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has given up on MCA, MIC and Gerakan. However, as I said, Najib also knows that Umno can’t face the elections in West Malaysia alone. So he needs to build up a new multi-racial party that not only can attract the Indians and Chinese but the Malays as well. And Najib is putting his money on PPP.

Of course, MCA, MIC and Gerakan are not going to allow this to happen without a fight. If PPP were to be given any seats it would have to be seats from MCA, MIC and Gerakan. Certainly PPP would not be given any Umno seats. So expect MCA, MIC and Gerakan to protest any move to give PPP seats to contest the coming election.

But Najib cannot ignore PPP either. Every event that PPP organises the crowd is impressive. MCA, MIC and Gerakan can no longer attract any crowds. PPP, however, appears able to do that. And this has not gone unnoticed. 

No doubt Najib also can’t antagonise MCA, MIC and Gerakan. If he were to take away some seats from MCA, MIC and Gerakan and give them to PPP then this would make Umno’s lead partners very unhappy. However, if giving these seats to MCA, MIC and Gerakan would only mean that the seats would be lost to Pakatan Rakyat, Najib may have very little choice in the matter.

But then the decision may not be entirely Najib’s. It seems Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has begun to be impressed by PPP’s ability to increase its membership and attract crowds at its functions. And Dr Mahathir would like to try out PPP this coming election and see how it fares. 

And is not Najib beholden to the ex-Prime Minister? And if Tun Dr Mahathir wants to give PPP a chance to prove itself, who is Najib to say otherwise? We may be seeing some very interesting developments come the next election. And if what I think is going to happen does happen, then PPP may become Umno’s first wife while MCA, MIC and Gerakan may be reduced to concubines.

Anyway, I will stop here and continue tomorrow. Three articles in a day are quite taxing on my old grey cells. In part four I may talk about the real story, the untold story behind Bersih 3.0. So stay tuned for more.

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2012/05/blog-post_3147.html