Three parties can’t form the federal government

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Way back in 1969, Umno already realised that it can’t form the federal government with a coalition of a mere three political parties. At that time the coalition of Umno, MCA and MIC was called the Alliance Party. That was why Barisan Nasional was formed a few years later -- so that they could enlarge the three-member coalition to include more parties.

A total of 7,944,274 Malaysians voted in the 2008 general election. Umno garnered 2,381,725 votes while MCA and MIC garnered 840,489 and 179,422 votes respectively. Combined, the ‘Alliance Party’ managed only 41.89% of the votes.

In terms of parliament seats, Umno, MCA and MIC won 79, 15 and 3 respectively. But we must remember that Umno’s 79 seats included 11 from Sabah. Therefore, minus Sabah, Umno won only 68 seats -- which means the ‘Alliance Party’ minus Sabah won only 86 out of the 222 seats in Parliament (or 97 seats if including Sabah).

With or without the 11 Umno Sabah seats, the ‘Alliance Party’ of Umno, MCA and MIC can’t get enough seats to form the federal government. They need Barisan Nasional to be able to form the federal government. And, today, Barisan Nasional is a coalition of 14 political parties (if you do not include the Election Commission, Police, Judiciary, AG’s Chambers, etc. -- which would then make it a coalition of 20 or more members).

The bottom line is: with a mere three political parties, Barisan Nasional can’t form the federal government. It needs 14 political parties to do that.

Now let us look at Pakatan Rakyat. It is also a coalition of three political parties. If Barisan Nasional can’t form the federal government with just three political parties (even with the help of the Election Commission, Police, Judiciary, AG’s Chambers, etc.) can Pakatan Rakyat do so (with the Election Commission, Police, Judiciary, AG’s Chambers, etc., all working against the opposition)?

I have said this before and I am going to say it again: Pakatan Rakyat must enlarge the coalition to include more political parties. It can’t expect to form the federal government with just PKR, DAP and PAS. It needs more parties to join Pakatan Rakyat, not only from West Malaysia but also, and in particular, from East Malaysia.

Pakatan Rakyat, in particular PKR, must not be sombong. It can’t make Pakatan Rakyat an ‘exclusive club’ of three parties. It has to reach out to more parties and invite them to join Pakatan Rakyat. If not Pakatan Rakyat is never going to form the next federal government.

The 2008 general election was the peak for Pakatan Rakyat. Pakatan Rakyat can’t expect to better the 2008 general election result with just three parties. Even if Pakatan Rakyat can just maintain its 2008 election result that would be a consolation enough. My fear is that in the next general election Pakatan Rakyat will drop from its 2008 height of 82 parliament seats to a mere 52 seats or so (a repeat of what it did in 1999 when it used to be known as Barisan Alternatif).

Pakatan Rakyat, in particular PKR, should stop making enemies and start making friends. It should remove that chip from its shoulder and stop looking down on those who share the common agenda of seeing change in Malaysia. There are many who share this aspiration for change. But Pakatan Rakyat acts like only it has that exclusive right of fighting for change. That is very sombong.

Let me repeat that: if Barisan Nasional can’t make it with just three political parties even with everything working in its favour (plus election fraud and vote rigging thrown in), what makes you think that Pakatan Rakyat can do so when the playing field is extremely far from level?

There are ten non-Barisan Nasional political parties. But only three are in Pakatan Rakyat. Why can’t Pakatan Rakyat become a coalition of at least seven parties even if it can’t be a coalition of ten parties?

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written by emastulen, May 29, 2011 12:46:13

For once I disagree with your analysis. GE2008 you did not expect a three party to deny BN their two third majority. They went on to win five states. It came as a pleasant surprise to you. Your analysis goes back to 1969 the period where the electorates have scarce information and the country was not even developed. Now is the 21st century and it is the IT age where info is easily accessible. If PKR plan their election campaign carefully and put up credible candidates they have an even chance. Unfortunately they seems to be concentrating on fighting Umno/BN over various allegations and internally they are fighting among themselves. These are basically their downfall. If PKR now serious take the bull by the horns and work out a formula among themselves without bickering over seats they stand a chance to unseat the ocrrupted Umno?BN govt.

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written by AlwaysFair, May 27, 2011 22:19:53

Pete, how very true, maybe MCLM can help to get more partners into Pakatan. PKR is now in dire straits, the boss is being whacked hard, the party may be deregistered and their office may have to shift. They have been sabotaged real bad and they need a much support I think their resources are spread so thin they cannot focus on their goals that is why I think things are pretty tough going.Whatever the obstacles I will stick with Pakatan through thick and thin.

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written by AzizKadir2u, May 27, 2011 11:37:31

Long live RPK, you are brilliant. Rakyat Malaysia, kita mesti undi RPK, PKR, PR, supaya kita boleh mendapat kerajaan baru. we must vote for change, to have new government to give us a new life. The Old BN & Umno is too old, 54 years old ? too old to give us any good ideas. we need the new blood of RPK, PR, PKR, so that we have new govermen that will not be so like the BN, sombong, greedy, corrupt, corrupt, tamak, corrupt, corrupt, corrupt, they abuse the AG judiciary, abuse the democracy, we must do away with the BN that only too corrupt, take care of cronies, kroni and kroni , look at all the sins, Dato Zakaria (house like palace), PI Bala hilang, Altantuya hilang, duit ehsan hilang, duit submarine hilang, enjin hilang, helicopter corruption, every thing defence department in 500 million euro are just too expensive, we do not have war in Asean, we have peaceful Asean. why spend so much on the war machine ? because of Corruption, corruption, cronies. duit petronas hilang, duit rakyat hilang, duit macam macam, gula naik harga, minyak Ron97 naik harga, susu naik harga, tepong naik harga, macam macam kita rakyat yang rugi, rakyat menderita, rakyat susah kerana bayar, bayar, bayar, bayar toll tiap tiap hari, pay toll everyday, everyday stuck in the traffic jam,
kerajaan yang kejam membeban rakyat menderita,
rakyat sedar, sudah, cukup lah, BN mesti pergi,
rakyat boleh,
rakyat boleh,
kita undi kerajaan baru, RPK, PKR, PR memang tak sempurna, they are not perfect, but we will have a
new history, in the making, where, we rakyat call the shot, rakyat boleh, yes we can,
we call for new government, kita mesti tukar,
mereka BN & Umno memang akan cheat, main kotor, pasal itulah, kita rakyat mesti undi RPK, PKR,
PR, ber ramai ramail supaya kita rakyat menang.
BN & Umno will cheat in the coming election, we rakyat must vote overwheamingly so that PR will win
60% of the vote to form the next gov, PR, RPK please make sure we have more Pakatan,
MCML, get the Snap, get the SAPP, get the new party, so that we win, only 3 parties is not enough,
so, DSAI, Hadi Awang, LGE, please start act on this,
Kita Rakyat Malaysia mesti pakat, pakat, pakat ke arah baru, pakat rakyat, pakat rakyat !

Long live RPK. we love all rakyat love you ! we must come together under your leadership,

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written by Pegasus, May 27, 2011 11:35:22

PKR please take note. It matter of reality and harsh truth!

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written by michatan2000, May 27, 2011 10:58:04

By the way, didn't the Alliance win the elections from 1957 - 1969?

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written by justice seeker, May 27, 2011 09:15:56

If Barisan Nasional can’t make it with just three political parties even with everything working in its favour (plus election fraud and vote rigging thrown in), what makes you think that Pakatan Rakyat can do so when the playing field is extremely far from level?

DSAI, TAKE HEED AND HUMBLE YOURSELF TO ACCEPT THE KADAZANS, IBANS AND DAYAKS INTO YOUR FOLD AND LET THEM LEAD THEIR KIND. FAILURE TO LISTEN IS NOT AN OPTION.

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written by michatan2000, May 27, 2011 08:17:25

The theory seems right, the more the merrier. Unity is strength. blah blah blah. But PR's situation is not that simple nor straight forward. They need to be so very wary of moles, frogs and trojan horses. Having gone through the baptism of fire since 2008 PR is right is being careful. In any case, better safe than sorry. I believe the leadership of PKR, PAS and DAP have enough wisdom to make the right decisions to make it to Putrajaya.

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written by rastamasta, May 27, 2011 02:33:42

Right! 30 years old when I was growing up in Malaysia, the Malays were simple people and I made many friends in my uni days. Heck i even had a Malay girlfriend and she was really sweet n had very high moral values. Things changed for the worst in the next 10 years. The malays realised that the chinamen were driving the best cars and living it by manipulating the Malays. So the Malays decided to raise up! I have seen with my own eyes how the Chinese treated the Malays 20 years...like slaves like pariah just because they had the money. So today...what the chinamen gets ... he deserves...Now they want equal treatment?? F**k you!! learn to treat people with respect maybe then things will change. you can never trust a chinamen....and now the UMNO malays have learned that. You can take the chinamen out from racist but you can never take the racist from the Chinamen and this is the gospel truth.

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written by lynn, May 27, 2011 00:28:50

Well said, RPK! Hypothetically, say bn "won" in GE13, a life of hell begins for all low-income & middle-income groups. Overnight, prices of everything go up when subsidies of RON 95, gas, electricity, diesel, rice, sugar, cooking oil, flour, etc. are cut off completely. In comes GST, wow, for the next 5 years, bn voters included will suffer. Let bn win and teach all these idiots a lesson. One they will live to remember.

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written by Saint, May 26, 2011 21:11:38

I have s small reservation in this piece. The era 1970 is much different then 2011. Even during that era when PPP was in the opposition and was ruling Ipoh, it lost to DAP when it joined BN. Over the years, Gerakan, MCA and MIC have been slowing loosing their support.(and even PAS) lost out when it joined BN. Thus a united PR will go a long way as people are more aware of UMNOBN. This does nor mean PR should not rope in more smaller parties. Every vote counts and that is why PR still needs to discuss even with "useless parties" like Hindraf.

Our fear is the government machinery which is 101% behind UNMOBn and will "dance to any tune" UNMOBN sings.

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written by BAYANGKARA, May 26, 2011 20:52:31

Pete,
Your explanation is as clear as daylight. But the Pakatan leaders seem to be in the dark.

GE13 is fast approaching but PR still have time to mend fences with its neighbours - the non-BN parties - and strive to be good partners to kick out BN from Putrajaya.

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written by singhkris, May 26, 2011 20:39:58

RPK, at the cost of being accused ofsedition, I think you left out one more institution which also belongs to UMNO and which helps bring down governments.

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written by temenggong, May 26, 2011 20:00:11

We have done our part and given PR a chance to rule.

But now there is no need to blindly support PR as their administration has been found wanting. We need to kick out many of their MPs in the next GE, especially in Perak. In fact, I feel Perak has to be handed over to BN in the next election although we support PR in all other states.

..just cite SNAP as example, if they refuse to subscribe to PR policies or have their candidates screened by MCLM..

Who gave the right to PR to screen other opposition candidates? It is PR candidates who needs to be screened, or, we should have a joint screening process.

I have been saying for two years now that PKR and DAP needs to have a succession plan to replace their leaders Anwar and LGE respectively, before we can have a workable plan at capturing GE 13.

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written by mamak, May 26, 2011 18:37:21

PKR need more Malay votes. Focus on this..

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written by Wally, May 26, 2011 17:37:19

Very nicely and succinctly put, Pete. You have made it clear that Pakatan Rakyat's leaders must overcome what is the most base of all sins (pride/arrogance), because it is the prime sin (the sin of sins) leading to all other sinful mental attitudes. That being the case, if Pakatan Rakyat can't overcome being sombong, what chance is there of them ever being incorruptible leaders?

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written by educationist, May 26, 2011 17:27:00

The first order of the day should be that PR be accomodating of the Barisan Rakyat Independent Candidates, nominated by the MCLM.
Then, PR must look into expanding the coalition by allowing some or all of the 10 non barisan nasional parties into its fold!!
The mistake of PKR stretching itself too thin[or is it a case of misplaced big ego now?]as in sarawak must not repeated come GE13!!

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written by Den, May 26, 2011 17:20:53

PR probably knew this principle as well... BUT.... just cite SNAP as example, if they refuse to subscribe to PR policies or have their candidates screened by MCLM..

How? does PR blindly take in any partners? and then have the frog festival after the GE?

It takes 2 hands to clap.... although I entirely agree that PR must be sincere and receptive

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written by hellosunshine, May 26, 2011 16:50:48

Since PKR and PAS are non entities in East Malaysia and DAP weak in the rural constituencies, why not screen thru and invite independent local Bumi native parties to join in PR to challenge BeEnd in the rural areas. BeEnd's relying on their vote bank in East Malaysia for the bulk of their MPs. Cut that MP share and the political scenario changes drastically. Focus on East Malaysia for that change as that is where the battle for Putrajaya will be played out.