What can we expect to see if the Perak State Assembly is dissolved later today and fresh state elections are held? Can Pakatan Rakyat increase its number of seats to 40, or maybe even 50, from the current 30? Let us analyse the possibility of Pakatan Rakyat doing even better this time around compared to the 8 March 2008 general elections.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Pakatan Rakyat started out with 31 seats and Barisan Nasional 28 seats in the aftermath of the 8 March 2008 general election. Last month, Pakatan Rakyat’s number of seats increased to 32 and Barisan Nasional’s dropped to 27 when one Umno State Assemblyman crossed over. Now, it appears like Pakatan Rakyat is down to 30 while Barisan Nasional is up to 29. This gives Pakatan Rakyat a mere one seat lead over Barisan Nasional.
A one-seat lead is almost a checkmate, a ‘hung parliament’ as they say. This is no bloody good. Like it or not, Pakatan Rakyat must go back to the voters and get a clear and fresh mandate from the people. Do the citizens of Perak still want Pakatan Rakyat as their government or do they want Barisan Nasional as their new state government? This must be decided by holding fresh state elections.
What would happen if Pakatan Rakyat dissolves the Perak State Assembly later today and calls for fresh state elections? Would they get back their 32 seats (leaving 27 seats for Barisan Nasional)? Or would they instead just be able to maintain status quo -- which is 30:29, Pakatan:Barisan? Or can Pakatan Rakyat actually increase its number of seats to 50, leaving Barisan Nasional with only nine seats?
Even if you wish to be conservative and ‘take the middle road’, Pakatan Rakyat can up its number of seats to at least 40. And the mere 19 seats under Barisan Nasional will be all Umno. There will be no seats for MCA, MIC, Gerakan or PPP. That is what can happen.
Okay, if Pakatan Rakyat wants to increase it seats to 40 or 50, which of the ten or 20 seats currently under Barisan Nasional can most likely fall? We are assuming, of course, that Pakatan Rakyat can retain its current 30 seats and none will fall to Barisan Nasional. So, the ten or 20 are added to the existing 30 to give Pakatan Rakyat its 40 or 50 seats.
First look at the 31 Perak state seats won by Pakatan Rakyat in the 8 March 2008 general election and the 27 seats won by Barisan Nasional in the table below. The 2004 general election results are also shown as a comparison and to demonstrate the slide Barisan Nasional suffered.
Now, let us look at the 20 Barisan Nasional seats that can most likely fall to Pakatan Rakyat.
The ten (10) marginal seats won by Barisan Nasional where the majority was less than 1,000 votes:
N10 – ALOR PONGSU majority 95
N15 – TRONG majority 916
N16 – KAMUNTING majority 555
N23 – MANJOI majority 348
N35 – MANONG majority 749
N36 – PENGKALAN BAHARU majority 14
N43 – SUNGAI RAPAT majority 636
N5 – SELAMA majority 355
N53 – RUNGKUP majority 454
N6 – KUBU GAJAH majority 66
The seven (7) seats won by Barisan Nasional where the majority was more than 1,000 votes but less than 2,000 votes:
N19 – CHENDEROH majority 1,039 (2,826 in 2004)
N21 – LINTANG majority 1,367 (5,839 in 2004)
N34 – BUKIT CHANDAN majority 1,694 (3,613 in 2004)
N38 – BELANJA majority 1,887 (3,143 in 2004)
N42 – TUALANG SEKAH majority 1,569 (3,311 in 2004)
N48 – SUNGAI MANIK majority 1,354 (3,599 in 2004)
N49 – KAMPONG GAJAH majority 1,416 (5,017 in 2004)
Three (3) other Barisan Nasional seats that can fall to Pakatan Rakyat:
N46 – CHENDERIANG. This is the solitary MCA seat in the Perak State Assembly but its 2004 majority (6,153) was reduced to half in 2008 (3,392). The problem is that PKR fielded an Indian candidate in a predominantly Chinese constituency. If PKR were to field a Chinese candidate this time around, then Pakatan Rakyat can grab this seat.
N47 – AYER KUNING. The Barisan Nasional (Umno) candidate beat the Pakatan Rakyat (PAS) candidate by a 3,525 majority in 2008. But this is still only half the 2004 majority of 6,887. About half the voters in this constituency are non-Malays. So the PAS candidate was a problem in 2008. This time around the non-Malays will have no problems voting for a PAS candidate.
This also applied for N42 – TUALANG SEKAH where PKR fielded an Indian in a Malay majority constituency (57%). If this time around Pakatan Rakyat fields a Malay candidate then there would be no problems.
So, that makes 20 Barisan Nasional seats in all that Pakatan Rakyat can add to its 30 which it already has. Impossible? Try and see. Dissolve the Perak State Assembly today and let’s give it a shot. I say it can be done. And even if Pakatan Rakyat can’t make it 50:9, at the very least it can turn in a result of 40:19. That will kill Barisan Nasional in Perak once and for all. I will put my money on that happening.
FULL PERAK STATE RESULTS OF THE 2008 GENERAL ELECTION WITH THE 2004 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS SHOWN AS A COMPARISON










written by borneopeteliew, February 08, 2009 11:49:57
written by Msian Idol3, February 08, 2009 03:40:46
written by joeyhuang, February 08, 2009 00:55:46
Watching through the eyes of Kong Ming (Zhu Ke Liang), I salute your dedication and brave act in sacrificing yourself in this Red Cliff battle. Keep up your faith and my support to your family members facing the public humiliation.
Yes we have Liu Pei's Shu Kingdom (Anwar), Wu Kingdom and Wei Kingdom (PAS & DAP) joining forces to face Tsao Tsao, the Prime Minister of Han Dynasty (Najib of BN) in 208A.D. (http://www.china-on-site.com/pages/comic/102.php)
Thank you for your bravery and self-sacrifice. I strongly believe Pakatan Rakyat is MOVING towards the Right Direction in this WAR. A DISASTER looming for UMNO and BN as this war rages on.
The WEATHER is now in favor of PAKATAN, they have the PEOPLE on their side now!!! Winning the hearts of PEOPLE through Humility and Sympathy.
For our non-Chinese Malaysians, go to see the movie Red Cliff2 and you will understand this Battle in Perak. Keep your cool as this is a WAR for PAKATAN to CRUSH BN!
MCA Life Member Bagan Division
written by Sitora, February 07, 2009 02:52:36
written by Singa, February 07, 2009 02:03:52
Power corrupts and absolute power is going to corrupt absolutely. So beware the peoples of 'beautiful' Malaysia. The country is going to turn 'ugly' after March 2009. The laws of terror will soon show its fangs and the loud and popular will be thrown behind bars. This is Mahashithead x 50 million times.
The only way is to stop this ugly pariah in his tracks, the sooner the better.
Good Luck 'Beautiful' Malaysia.
written by mountainking, February 06, 2009 07:20:56
written by Taiping60, February 06, 2009 05:51:14
Don't believe call for snap election
written by anak melaka, February 05, 2009 14:56:40
I was extremely disgusted with the way newscasters propaganda on najis takeover of Perak government sebagai sesuatu perkara yang mengejutkan. If anyone can recall this son of ***** (razak btw), then nothing can surprise me more than his failure to meet DYMM due to OPS SIKAP failure... how i wish
Call me dreamer i admit. And I still dream that MP Hee limp-over was just a mere DAP plot to gather more concrete proof of BeEnd corruptive ways. Let's hope we can get video that outclass lingam on youtube.
written by PeacefulMalaysia, February 05, 2009 14:48:03
For 11 months you were shooting your mouth - but ASAP sahaja.
No action.
We voted you to bring about changes - but till today nothing.
You capitalised on HINDRAF to give you the mileage
In short you can't deliver.
Do something - show some deliverable
Cheers
written by lampard, February 05, 2009 14:04:14
written by lampard, February 05, 2009 13:54:30
written by Yikes, February 05, 2009 12:57:53
New BN government being formed as i type.
As much as i want to stay positive.
As much as i knew this is the only outcome.
As much as i taught myself not to expect miracle.
I am so so so so disappointed.
Just so disappointed.
written by charli88, February 05, 2009 11:59:44
written by chilten, February 05, 2009 11:58:04
does not mean that it is right for BN to do the same thing or even
worse. Anwar has not started the rollover but he did plan it. Nobody
knows whether he will be successful or not. Now BN has started the
rollover and they blame it all on Anwar Ibrahim.
If you say that you want to punch me, but I come and punch you first,
I will be convicted of assault on you. The court cannot charge you
because nobody knows whether you would really punch me or not.
If four men stopped their car in front of a bank they are about to rob
only to find that the bank was closed because of attempted robbery by
their betraying partners 10 minutes earlier, the four men are innocent
because they have not commit the crime but the betraying partners who
had attempted the robbery and killed a security guard will go to jail.
Unless if the court follows the BN's philosophy, you would be
convicted just for saying that you wanted to punch me. The four men
who have not robbed any bank would go to jail and the betraying
partners who already robbed the bank and killed the security guard
will be free.
I remember when Najib Tun Razak said he wanted to soak the keris with
Chinese blood. Even though he has not done it, I guess now it is not a
crime if the Chinese soak the keris with Malay blood. I learned this
from BN who learned from Anwar. When the Chinese are charged in court
for soaking keris with Malay blood, the Chinese can blame Najib Tun
Razak for 'starting' it and the Chinese will be innocent and Najib Tun
Razak will be guilty.
written by Little Sparrow, February 05, 2009 10:05:15
written by Taikohtai, February 05, 2009 06:24:00
I would suggest that all the PR Aduns resign their positions and hold by-elections to test their mandate. If they all win by bigger majority, then the whole world except BN will know that PR is the legitimate state gomen and BN is the usurper. And it will also mean that BN federal gomen is also just that.
written by user1001, February 05, 2009 04:50:32
Why all perakians support the opposstions during the March elections? The answer is simple - We all want CHANGES! We all want peaceful and fair TREATMENTS! We all want to have a GOOD LIVING(boleh cari makan)! I will surely go back IPOH to vote for PR, giving support to PR if the assmebly/protest/strike is ON tomorrow night! I will give my every support to PR! And once and for all let us abolish BN! I dun like the SHIT(NAJIS)! at all! and those who betray perakians (Useless "JOHN"). I was there in IPOH after the March Elections which is governed by PR. I saw there are many changes and all perakians can earn a good living there. It seems that perakians, our decisions were correct and precise to choose PR as our new government! NOT BN! LETS US ABOLISH BN! Don't let BN has more chances, not even one chance. ABOLISH BN for ALL! ABOLISH MCA ABOLISH MIC ABOLISH UMNO!
written by takbolehtahan, February 05, 2009 04:21:43
written by onnetline, February 05, 2009 03:45:09
Don't believe that the DYMM doesn't know about this and the current needs of the rakyat !
written by jeevy, February 05, 2009 03:33:48
written by Rainbowseahorse, February 05, 2009 02:20:56
A case of very bad judgment, failure to assess the imminent and make firm decision, and miscalculations.
It strikes me that the PKR was hoping against hope that the problem would resolve itself, and only take decisive action when it was just a little too late!
written by RakyatMY, February 05, 2009 01:06:14
It'd be poetic justice if BN's coup failed and the four are left with nothing and two of them will still stand trial for corruption. Let's see if they are thick skin enough to ask to go back to PR.
If this is the game BN wants to play, watch out. They may temporarily gain Perak (if at all), but they will stand to lose the nation.
308, Permatang Pauh and Kota Terengganu. The people have spoken. BN should get the priority right. Do something for the nation, not trying to vest power from a state.
written by malgal, February 04, 2009 23:17:28
written by malgal, February 04, 2009 23:09:22
Millions of our money has been dangled and grabbed for power. But the real power is us - never forget that, go for it!!!
written by minds, February 04, 2009 19:21:28
written by patlu, February 04, 2009 18:02:17
People, especially Perakians, please tell His Majesty what you want at his GUESTBOOK, a link from his official website http://sultan.perak.gov.my/
Please use your real name to be taken seriously.
written by LFLee, February 04, 2009 17:12:59
a wise decision for the good of the people?
If not, can you hope he will do it this time?
These Sultans, fed by the people tax money, living a
luxury life and talk big only, you think they will
do what they wrote in their book?
They never stand with the people before, and don't
hope they will this time. If a guy never have a ball
to stand up for what is right all his life, do you
think he will come time making big decision?
Malaysian just been fcuked big time, and this is a
fcuked up country.
written by MAGELLAN, February 04, 2009 16:32:39
written by Bradcrz, February 04, 2009 15:41:57
written by ricky, February 04, 2009 15:12:35
To the BN goons, it's just a "short term gain but a long term pain" - just you wait and see. Meanwhile. let our wise Sultan decide.
written by letsbefair, February 04, 2009 15:03:19
And his reasoning... to settle the issue once and for all!
written by letsbefair, February 04, 2009 14:59:40
The joker from Bota was a "pawn sacrifice". When Najib have an audience with the Sultan he would say that its a fair game. Bota assemblyman defected to PKR and UMNO did not complain. So why is it when PKR assembly men and DAP assembly woman defected to BN did they start complaining? Is it unfair? Isn't they playing double standard?
So it should be allowed, this "hop here hop there" game. And since BN now have majority they can pass a no-confidence vote on the Menteri Besar and then install one among themselves as MB. They have the numbers!
DAP leaders are far-sighted. They knew this game but unfortunately Anwar did not. He took the bait. Or should I said he accepted the gambit.
written by lynn, February 04, 2009 13:56:13
He shld start rotting now where he is visible; let's not get disappointed when he "fixes" his way to be PM. Life is unfair.
Life has proven without any doubt, the cruel, guilty, corrupt, racist bastards, they do not get punishment as they shld. They always get off scot-free. Look at Bush, he is a mass murderer when he killed 1 mil Iraqis. The only punishment he got was a shoe he ducked in time.
Look at Marcos, his only suffering were his fcuking failing kidneys, I thought this evil specimen deserve a huge tumor hanging down from his forehead which he can swing it anyway he fancied. Suharto may have taken a long time to draw his last breath, but his children, they are SO FILTHY RICH. Thanks Daddy.
There are thousands of evil persons in umno. At worst, one or two will suffer a heart attack;some days, one wondered, how did zakaria deros make a heart attack happen? Remember the prostituted media cannot be relied on to tell the truth.
written by Toyolbuster, February 04, 2009 13:19:00
written by apa jadi, February 04, 2009 11:58:45
I was actually against any unnecessary by-elections. It burdens the people.
But looking at the desperado Najib is in, I think dissolution of the state government is imperative. It is a good chance for Najib to hear once again what the masses think.
Getting Tajol to resign as state chief, with him taking helm, is bad enough for a national level leader. Getting two tainted state assemblymen adds to tainting himself. It shows that he can work with suspected corrupts to get into power. Getting a katak lopat katak, shows that he can accomodate people who change his mind within days. I begin to wonder whether he can allow a nest of crooks to be under his wings.
written by mahendra5, February 04, 2009 11:38:02
as predicted. Now what - they are going to play the same game to usurp power from other Pakatan States - just watch it! CALL A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW, UMNO WILL BE SWEPT CLEAN AND THE PAKATAN RAKYAT WILL EASILY TAKE OVER THE GOVERNMENT. YOU CAN ALSO SEE MANY OF THE BN CANDIDATES LOSING THEIR DEPOSITS. HOW LONG CAN THE BN PLAY THIS GAME. THE 2 PKR GUYS WERE INVOLVED IN SEXY CORRUPTION AND YET UMNO IS WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM WHEREAS THE PR GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN STEPS TO SACK THEM. NOW WHO THE CLEANER OF THE TWO - THE UMNO GOVT OR THE PAKATAN RAKYAT GOVT. IT IS OF COURSE THE PAKATAN RAKYAT GOVERNMENT.
UMNO SHOULD HAVE LEARNED A VERY HARD LESSON FROM THE RECENT DEFEAT FROM THE PERMATANG PAUH BY-ELECTION AND THE KT ELECTION WHERE THEY HAD A 'TKO'. UMNO KNOWS WELL THAT THE RAKYAT DO NOT WANT THEM ANYMOREAND NOW THEY PLAY THIS DIRTY GAME.
HOW LONG THEY ARE GOING TO PLAY THIS GAME - WELL THE RAKYAT ARE LAUGHING AWAY AND SEEING THE FUN. THERE IS ONE SAYING - BY DIGGING GRAVES FOR OTHER PEOPLE, ITSW NOT LONG THAT YHOU FALL INTO THE GRAVE AND GET YOURSELF BURRIED FOR GOOD.
We are confident that our learned Royal Highness would grant a fresh Election to be held in his state so that his country could be run smoothly with a clean mandate from the Rakyat.
PRO-PAKATAN RAKYAT
written by Eskay Lim, February 04, 2009 11:06:30
The Barisan Nasional under Najis is so bent on grabbing power from the present Pakatan govt. through means of cross-overs and party-hopping. And the EC has been assisting him.
So now, our only hope is to appeal to the Royal Highness of Perak to give royal consent to dissolve the Perak State Assembly and thence to have fresh elections thereby giving an opportunity to the Perak rakyat to exercise their democratic right to elect and to choose the party to rule Perak for the next 4 years.
written by wongnoball, February 04, 2009 10:59:48
If the hope of the nation is dependent on Sultan Perak, don't forget he too can be bought for say 1 Billion......how about some secret dossier on HIS son & Wife.....etc...
Its only a 3 year joy for UMNO BN, hope they can rape Billions from Perak...after that we the People will say to those Royalty, Protocol, respect your days also numbered.
To that DAP Scum Hee and the 2 PKR and the UMNO katak, I congratulate you on your gains....$10-15 million...i pity your family, relatives and those associated with you come the Next Election. We will make sure you spend the rest of your life either in jail or better plan your migration....Now with your Gains. Allah Give your ALL 4 A Heart Attack tonight!! the Sultan if he Does not dissolve the State Assembly at the wishes of the People.....
I am tired of living a lie and if I can I will continue to do things NOT Natural to my DNA...the time is now for UMNO-BN Obliteration!!
written by zcakw07, February 04, 2009 10:15:24
The key issue here is whether there will be any election at all. I would think everyone would like to know whether Perak Sultan will agree with the request to dissolute the state parliment.
written by aeromaverick, February 04, 2009 09:36:30
It all boils down to the following,
a. PR's capability with regards to staying power/holding power.
b. The rakyats wisdom and intelligence.
c. The wise old men in BN to check the dirty players to an extend.
d. The Perak Royalty influence, probably the most educated and wisest Royalty in the country today.
God Save Us......
written by Badrol, February 04, 2009 08:29:08
written by temenggong, February 04, 2009 08:21:57
written by teo siew chin, February 04, 2009 07:41:43
Get ready to partyyyyyyy !
written by singam, February 04, 2009 07:31:36
"N46 – CHENDERIANG. This is the solitary MCA seat in the Perak State Assembly but its 2004 majority (6,153) was reduced to half in 2008 (3,392). The problem is that PKR fielded an Indian candidate in a predominantly Chinese constituency. If PKR were to field a Chinese candidate this time around, then Pakatan Rakyat can grab this seat.
This is the sad reality that we face - the consequence of a half century of race-based politics. I look forward to a future where this is no longer the case. Am I dreaming?
written by KingSolomon, February 04, 2009 07:15:34
written by mamak, February 04, 2009 07:09:28
BEBAS: 3
BN : 27
BN BEBAS = 30
Get someone from BN to join PR fast... fast.. by today..
written by Mark C, February 04, 2009 06:49:07
BN will offer to form new Perak government?
IPOH, Feb 4  The Barisan Nasional is expected to make an announcement this afternoon offering to form a new state government in Perak, even as Pakatan Rakyat Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin races against time to seek consent from Sultan Azlan Shah to dissolve the state government.
Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has called for a press conference in Putrajaya today at 4pm, and speculation is rife that he will be making the announcement on behalf of BN.
written by Vera, February 04, 2009 06:40:49
The political climate is ripe to call for a new referendum in Perak! Under the present circumstances,a hung state assembly can go either way. Again Perak will be yours for the taking and I'm confident that the 40 majority seats will be in PR's favour this time around.Go for it! It's now or never!
written by mamak, February 04, 2009 06:33:27
By this week there will be another one PR Assemblyman crossed over to BN. BN will form a new state government.
Next week, there will one BN Assemblyman crossed over to PR. PR will form a new state government.
So, every week Perak will have a new state government.
written by sorosapril, February 04, 2009 06:31:14
also, will Pakatan Rakyat win again? go and ask PBS what happened when they dissolved the State Assembly the last time when all its frogs jumped?
i think the same thing will happen to Pakatan Rakyat.
AAB did not say the two ex-State Assemblymen were weak like the comments he made about the frog jumping from UMNO to Keadilan
written by Mark C, February 04, 2009 06:23:18
I am worried when I read Pete's post that BN has managed a coup to oust the current PR government...if it's true, then the rakyat lose, big time.
written by Goostee, February 04, 2009 06:18:32
written by hellosunshine, February 04, 2009 06:17:31
written by teo siew chin, February 04, 2009 06:15:12
So haul your PRmobile van out again and hit the roads!
written by smalluncle, February 04, 2009 06:15:10
too bad. Sorry loh.
written by panca, February 04, 2009 06:11:35
Go for it MB Nizar, Malaysians wants back the same rights the Perakians voters given to your Pakatan Rakyat government and Perkians will not sit with the current situation where umno are playing dirty and corrupted tactics to de-stabilise your legitimised government the voters have elected.
We have to go back to the drawing board, now this time it will be more rewarding because the voters knows what seriously they need to vote for, among others, a government that care and can give land titles to destitute, poor, the deserving people. Who needs the current Federal government who has been undermining the progress of the country, creating problems for the state and its people?
Look no further, the Rakyat will win for Pakatan Rakyat for the State!
written by Mr Smith, February 04, 2009 06:10:45
Hope the sultan will have the wisdom of King Solomon to dissolve the assembly and let the people decide, yes let people decide , not the royal house.
written by Man In Black, February 04, 2009 06:07:50
My money is with you. Please start the fund raising drive the momemet the Perak State Assembly is dissolved. This time we will go house to house and knock on doors to make sure BARISAN NAJIS is once and for all buried from PERAK and eventually MALAYSIA......
written by pinsysu, February 04, 2009 06:04:51
written by Mr Smith, February 04, 2009 06:03:51
The sultan should not prolong this turmoil. Dissolve the assembly.
written by purpleshoppe, February 04, 2009 06:02:26
all the candidates who won previously, some enriched to disgusting amounts of blood money. un-regretful morons... you should be put in prison
we want it fresh and we want it clean
why not give the Rakyat a chance? because you already invested a lot and will have it your way? lets hope the royalty of Perak will not succumb to the beautiful offers BN will make
written by yeechut, February 04, 2009 06:00:59
written by krising1, February 04, 2009 05:59:35
written by Chimera, February 04, 2009 05:59:12
"written by Raja Petra, February 04, 2009 13:54:42
LATEST UPDATES: Umno about to launch a coup and will meet the Perak Sultan this afternoon to form a new state government. Zahid Hamidi or Hamzah Zainuddin to be the new Menteri Besar of Perak "
Not a good sign for rakyat..
written by PRman, February 04, 2009 05:58:54
written by Motherchell, February 04, 2009 05:58:32
I am very confident of a major win for Pakatan. The people have said it aloud in PP , KT and on Mar 8,. This will be the scream from the people of Perak .
I have full confidence in the Tuanku too , he for sure wants a stable state, and behind his mind , HRH Raja Azlan knows the message . He will never allow minions to scuttle his wisdom!!
Long live the People of Perak ! They have what it takes to bury the Evil once and for all. Time ticks for UMNO to hit the bottom! Thank you Pete, for great strength added in the analysis.
written by Raja Petra, February 04, 2009 05:54:42
written by Chimera, February 04, 2009 05:54:15
written by justinlian, February 04, 2009 05:53:18
It will be a comdemn to UMNO and BN and I wonder after that what will they do then.
They are the dying party.
Malaysia is going for a change.
Keep our hope alive.
If fresh state elections are held in Perak





















