Soon after Mahathir made his shock decision, UMNO stalwart Razaleigh addressed a crowd of over 1,000 people at a hotel in Alor Star, the capital of Mahathir's home state of Kedah, saying that he would challenge for the party's top post and that UMNO needed to adopt among other things a more democratic culture.

By Anil Netto, Asia Times Online

Former premier Mahathir Mohamad's decision to quit the ruling United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO) on Monday represents his strongest political protest yet against his hand-picked successor Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi - and perhaps his biggest gamble.

His high-stakes decision came after a royal commission of inquiry last week recommended that the former prime minister and a number of his associates face probes under various laws for suspected involvement in the fixing of appointments, promotions and removal of judges, including the sacking of six top judges in 1988, which critics claim permanently undermined the judiciary's independence.

Among those implicated are gaming tycoon Vincent Tan, the then de facto law minister, Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor, prominent lawyer V K Lingam, and a retired top judge. The inquiry said that Mahathir was also "entangled" in the alleged scandal. All denied any wrongdoing during inquiry hearings held earlier this year.

Mahathir's surprise decision comes while Abdullah is fighting for his political life after UMNO's poor showing at general elections held in March. Some contend Abdullah is trying to regain the reform high ground from opposition parties through his pursuit of the backward-looking charges against Mahathir and his associates.

Some observers see Mahathir's move as a clever ruse to raise the political ante, while others say it smacks of desperation, as he could have waited for rivals to oust Abdullah during UMNO party elections scheduled for the end of this year. It is also being seen as an attempt to divert public attention away from the actual inquiry findings.

Many observers believe that Mahathir's desperate move also stems from his concern that his nemesis, former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim, who was jailed on corruption and sodomy charges, could soon rise to power through his opposition Pakatan Rakyat party and then open the books on Mahathir's 22-year tenure, which spanned from 1981 to 2003.

Ironically, Mahathir is resigning from the so-called UMNO Baru, or New UMNO, the party he founded in 1988 after a court declared the original UMNO, established in 1946, illegal. That court decision was made due to voting irregularities during party elections held in 1987, which Mahathir had won by a thin majority over his then arch rival Tengku Razaleigh.

Abdullah, UMNO's current president, now faces a stiff leadership challenge within the party, not least from the ambitious and ever-persistent Razaleigh, a former finance minister and prince from the eastern coastal state of Kelantan. Intra-party leadership elections are scheduled for later this year and already there is intense jockeying for position to oust Abdullah from UMNO's top post.

At the same time, few political analysts believe that the 82-year-old Mahathir will fade away without a fight. Instead, they expect him to step up his crusade from outside UMNO. He has already urged other UMNO party members to follow him out of the party, saying that once Abdullah steps down they could collectively return to the party's fold.

Some saw the recent establishment of a royal commission as an intensification of the ongoing proxy war between Abdullah and Mahathir, which until now has largely been fought in the press. The former premier had slammed Abdullah on a wide range of policy matters, including the cancelation of key mega-projects he initiated and the growing political and commercial influence of Abdullah's family members.

Although Mahathir said he was willing to be charged in court so that he may "expose more conflicts faced by the judges, including those who have implicated me", the recommendation that he be investigated was probably the last straw for the ex-premier, who considers himself the father of modern Malaysia.

Legacy in doubt

In recent months, Mahathir had watched quietly from the sidelines as his legacy was drawn into question. Critics say that apart from rapid economic growth, his legacy also included a loss of judiciary independence, religious polarization, uneven economic development, yawning income inequalities, environmental degradation and declining standards in public universities.

All the alleged corruption, cronyism and superficial nation-building during his administration - and some say carried over into the Abdullah administration - finally came home to roost with UMNO's comparatively poor performance at the March general elections.

The opposition Pakatan Rakyat, led by former UMNO big wig and deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim, made sharp electoral inroads at the polls, winning close to half the popular vote. The UMNO-led Barisan Nasional coalition still maintains a 140-82 majority of seats in the federal parliament, but there is growing speculation that Anwar's party could soon seize power through defections.

With Mahathir's surprise announcement, many Malaysians believe his departure will work to Pakatan's political advantage and even perhaps signal the beginning of the end of UMNO. "You know UMNO is in trouble when its party members start abandoning ship," said one political scientist, who requested anonymity.

Soon after Mahathir made his shock decision, UMNO stalwart Razaleigh addressed a crowd of over 1,000 people at a hotel in Alor Star, the capital of Mahathir's home state of Kedah, saying that he would challenge for the party's top post and that UMNO needed to adopt among other things a more democratic culture.

One political analyst at the scene told Asia Times Online that he believes Mahathir is now prepared to throw his backing behind his former rival Razaleigh to protect his legacy. Analysts are also watching closely to see what Mahathir's son, Mukhriz, who is a committee member of the party's youth wing, and UMNO deputy president and Mahathir ally Najib Razak, do next.

Barring UMNO's outright implosion, with Mahathir's departure intra-coalition factionalism is likely to intensify ahead of the party leadership contest. As the countdown to the UMNO polls begins, few are betting that Abdullah will last the distance. Abdullah's initial reaction to Mahathir's departure was one of measured calm, admitting on one hand that his resignation would impact on UMNO but with the other impressing upon party members the importance that they continue to support the party.

Even with the charges against him, few are willing to write off Mahathir, who some believe for his own personal reasons is attempting to heighten the sense of crisis within UMNO and disenchantment with Abdullah's leadership. Much will depend on how many UMNO members are swayed by Mahathir's decision to actually leave the party.

To be sure, Mahathir's gamble could backfire, particularly if it encourages defections among restless ruling coalition parliamentarians from Sabah and Sarawak, who won 54 of the ruling coalition's 140 seats, to the opposition. In recent weeks Sabah politicians in particular have articulated demands for higher oil royalties and greater political representation.

UMNO supreme council member, Shahrir Samad, has suggested that if the party's lawmakers start to defect the government would have no choice but to call for new general elections. Though not imminent, with UMNO in crisis such a possibility cannot be discounted in the months ahead. And if fresh polls were held while Anwar's Pakatan party gains political momentum, a weakened UMNO could fare even worse than it did in March.

Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer.

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