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Analysts say move could hit country's risk profile, enhance opposition's position By Leslie Lopez, THE STRAITS TIMES
UPROAR: Tun Dr Mahathir, seen here in 2003 with Datuk Seri Abdullah, is putting Umno at risk. -- PHOTO: AFP MALAYSIA'S already messy politics just got messier. The stunning resignation yesterday of former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad from Umno is set to undermine the party and the shaky Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government. The implications for Malaysia, which is still grappling with the unexpected outcome of the March general election, are far-reaching. Tun Dr Mahathir's influence and political clout cannot be underestimated, and his resignation could raise Malaysia's political risk profile among foreign investors as well as undermine an already struggling economy. It could also strengthen the country's opposition alliance, headed by his political nemesis Anwar Ibrahim. The resignation could tempt Umno's parliamentary representatives and BN's coalition partners to defect to the opposition alliance as a result of the worsening crisis. Umno information chief Muhammad Muhamad Taib said: 'It is not fair for him to do that (ask members to quit) because it will affect Umno adversely.' Tun Dr Mahathir had earlier urged his supporters, including Cabinet ministers, to resign and only return to Umno after Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi steps down. But some analysts see Tun Dr Mahathir's move as a sign of desperation. The former leader has been seeing the unravelling of his mixed legacy. The most recent event in this process came last week when the government released the findings of a Royal Commission which had investigated allegations of corruption in the judiciary. The report concluded that Tun Dr Mahathir had played a role in undermining the selection of the country's judges. The report also called on the government to open fresh investigations into allegations of corruption among judges. It stands as one of the most serious indictments of Tun Dr Mahathir's legacy. Seen that way, his resignation could serve to deflect attention from the report and discourage any debate over his political record. Without doubt, his decision to resign will affect the morale of party members. It will also put Datuk Seri Abdullah in an awkward position as he will be blamed for driving their former chief out of the party. But Tun Dr Mahathir's call for mass resignations from Umno may fail. Analysts note that his attempts to stoke a rebellion after the BN lost badly in the March 8 election failed. 'The thorn in the flesh has been removed,' said former deputy prime minister Musa Hitam, a political enemy of Tun Dr Mahathir who added that Umno 'must accept the reality that the Mahathirism concept has gone'. But should Tun Dr Mahathir's gambit work, the implications could be disastrous for Umno, with its 79 elected representatives in Parliament. It is the single-largest political group in the 222-member Parliament. Under the Constitution, the King picks as prime minister the leader who enjoys majority support of the Lower House. But the opposition's strong showing in the general election has changed the political dynamic. A sharp drop in Umno's representation in Parliament would strip the party of its premier status. Under such a scenario, the King could call for fresh elections to resolve the country's political crisis. Or he could exercise his constitutional right to pick a leader who, in his mind, enjoys majority support in Parliament. Under that scenario, Datuk Seri Anwar's claim that the opposition could form the government before mid-September does not ring so hollow any more.
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