SHU-CHING JEAN CHEN, FORBES

HONG KONG - Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim might manage to fulfill his long-standing wish to occupy the prime minister's seat, as soon as Malaysia Day (September 16). That would herald the first alternation of power in Malaysia's post-independence history.

On Monday, Anwar's estranged former mentor, Mahathir Mohamad, unintentionally helped strengthen his hand by announcing he was quitting the ruling party, the United Malays National Organization, which Mahathir had led for 22 years before his retirement from politics in 2003. Despite his growing unpopularity within the country, Mahathir, at 82, still commands the loyalty of many UMNO members, perhaps as much as half of its ranks, so his decision would likely hasten the decline of the party.

Mahathir's break with UMNO demonstrates his determination to settle scores with his handpicked successor as prime minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, whom he suspected of leaking a 2001 videotape, known as the Lingam video, to Anwar, for him to pass along for publication last September by Malaysia's top English-language newspaper, the Star. Featuring a conversation between a power broker, V. K. Lingam, and Ahmad Fairuz, then the country's third-ranking judge, who later become chief justice of the country's Supreme Court, boasting how the appointments of top judges were fixed. The videotape triggered an inquiry into corruption charges, which culminated three days ago in a government order to investigate Mahathir, Lingam and Fairuz, as well as two other former chief justices and Malaysian gaming tycoon Vincent Tan.

The Star's online edition said that Mahathir was resigning because of a lack of confidence in the current party leadership. He told an audience of about 1,000 people on Monday, "I will write a letter to UMNO headquarters to inform that I have quit the party." He called for other party members to join him in order to force Abdullah into resigning from his post.

UMNO, composed of an ethnic Malay political elite, has ruled the country in coalition with parties representing Chinese and Indian Malaysians and others uninterruptedly since 1957, when the peninsular portion of the country, known as Malaya, won its independence from Britain. A split in UMNO is sure to prompt more defections to Anwar's opposition party, Pakatan Rakyat. Over the weekend, Anwar reiterated his prediction that he would be poised to form a new government on September 16, the anniversary of the Malaysian Federation's formation--out of the states of Malaya plus Singapore, Sarawak and Sabah--in 1963. "I have enough lawmakers in my hand now to form the new government. I stand by that date," he told reporters.

Pakatan Rakyat is a marriage of convenience, a loose grouping of Anwar's followers with an Islamist party and a dissident ethnic Chinese party. Its rise started with general elections in March, when it won in slightly less than half of the vote, which translated into 82 seats in the 222-member lower house. The UMNO coalition still controls the other 140 seats.

Pakatan Rakyat could obtain a simple majority by winning the defection of 30 members from UMNO, but Anwar said he was aiming for more, in part by offering incentives to politicians from the two resource-rich states on the island of Borneo, Sabah and Sarawak. He is pledging that the states can retain a 20% share of petroleum royalties, up from the current 5%. Sabah and Sarawak represent about a quarter of seats in the national parliament.

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